horse racing riches

Introduction

You can utilise this selection method either online, at the course or in the high street bookies. If you choose to bet online I highly recommend using bet365. The reason for this is that if you bet and take the price, should the horse’s starting price be higher, they will give you this!

(For example I bet on a 6/1 which won for me. When I checked my bet365 account, I saw the selection had a starting price of 9/1 and so I got paid at

9/1!)

Add www.racingpost.com to your favourites. This is the site which is the easiest and most effective to use to find our selections.

Never bet more than you can afford to lose. When choosing your starting stake, work out the worst case scenario and how much you would be down and only proceed if you are happy you could take that.

You must follow the staking plan strictly! Familiarise yourself with the selection method in the next section, and then carefully learn the staking plan and stick to it!

Now, let me explain how to find those winners...

 

The Selection Method

The selection method for Horse Racing Riches is very simple to follow and eliminates as much thinking as possible. Thinking makes our rules for selections different every time and starts to bring in a ‘gut-feeling’ and things like this lose us money. Follow the rules below and do not relax them just because you fancy a horse or you haven’t many other selections on the day to bet on.

In order for a horse to become a selection, it must pass through every step even if you eliminate all the other runners and are left with one.

1.  Only look at Handicap races on the flat

This type of race is where our selection method becomes really fruitful and will earn you lots of profit. Only select these races for further scrutiny.

Thus, you will not include races called for example a Nursery, or a Stakes race, or a

Maiden.

Similarly, you will not include races called Chases, or Hurdles because these are not on the flat.

You can find out what type of race it is in the title. On the racingpost website under ‘Cards’ the race title will say a sponsor followed by het race name. Some examples:

Smith & Westerns Restaurant Handicap Cl6 1m2f:      Meets our criteria

Hardingscatering.co.uk Nursery Cl5 6f:                          Does not meet our criteria

Game Makers Handicap Chase Cl4 3m:                        Does not meet out criteria

Also exclude races which say Apprentice or Amateur in the title

 

2.  Horses’ weight

By default, when you click a race on the racingpost site the horses will be listed in order of the weight they are carrying for the race, with the horse carrying the most weight at the top going down to the horse carrying the least.

We want to eliminate some of the horses carrying the least weight and the number of horses to eliminate depends on the race distance:

(Tip: On racingpost.com there is a little ‘X’ under each horse which you can click to rule that horse out. This is useful when eliminating horses as we are now.)

5 furlong races (5f): Only keep the top 6 listed (weighted) horses. Should the 7th horse down be the same weight as the 6th, keep them in

6 furlong races (6f): Only keep the top two thirds

2 miles plus (2m+ / 16f+): Only keep the top third

Any other distance: Only keep the top 5

Now you have a smaller group of horses to pick from. However we must make sure the two horses with the most weight warrant having that much. To do this, look at the

6-figure form of the top two horses (to the left of their name.) Sometimes there won’t be six figures and can be less. The numbers relate to the horses’ finishing position so a 1 is a win. The furthest right number is the horse’s most recent race. Award points to the horse as follows:

6-figure form:                      2pts per win in the last 3 races

1pt per win in the previous 3 races to the above

1pt per position 2,3,4 in any of the 6 races

5-figure form (or less):   3pts if horse won its last race

2pt per win in the previous races to the above

1pt per position 2,3,4 in any of the listed races

Now, if the horse had a 6-figure form and scored less than 4pts, eliminate it.

If it had a 5-figure form and scored less than 3pts, eliminate it.

If it had a 4-figure form or less and scored less than 2pts, eliminate it.

Remember this scoring only applies to the two horses carrying the most weight

 

3.  The odds must be between 9/2 to 10/1 inclusive

IMPORTANT: This price is the betting forecast from the Racingpost website or newspaper. The betting forecasts are the initial prices for the horse and are released on the site at 10am I believe it is, or for a couple of quid a month you can see them the night before

If you work in decimal odds, you want your horse to be between 5.50 and 11.00 inclusive

From the horses that made it through step 2, cross off any that do not meet this odds requirement.

Already you may be noticing that most of or all of the horses have been eliminated. If all have been crossed off, there is no selection and you should move on to the next qualifying race. If you have only one horse left, it still must pass all the remaining steps to become a selection.

4.  Must have won within the last 6 months

Click on the horse on the racingpost website and it will bring up a whole list of its races including the dates and its finishing position. Only keep the horses that have won a race within the last 6 months

5.  Winning jockey

For the remaining horses, check what jockey is riding them. (There are two names written alongside the horse. On the racingpost site the jockey is the top one.)

Now click on the horse to bring up the detailed view of its form as you did in step 4.

The jockey riding the horse in this race must have ridden the same horse, and won on it, within the last 12 months

This step can often eliminate all your remaining horses and can lead to many races having no selections. Do not be tempted to ignore this step as it is one of the most crucial factors in our horse picking.

6.  Official Rating cannot be more than 10 below another horse

The official rating (OR) of the horses remaining are to be checked against all others in the race. It a horse’s rating is 10 lower than another, then disregard it from your picks

 

7.  Horse’s weight cannot be more than 7lb higher than latest race

This final step is not as simple as it sounds. It is not as straight forward as seeing whether today’s weight is 7lb more than the last race. Once you learn the below it becomes easy to work out.

The quality of the horses in a race is defined by the Class of a race. Class 1 features the best runners, going all the way down to Class 6.

For the purposes of this selection method, we assume that if a horse is running at a class one up from its latest run, it is 7lb more difficult.

For example: Horse A’s latest race was a Class 4 and its weight was 10st 7lb. Horse

A is in today’s race which is a Class 3. Its weight today is 10st. This means for the purposes of our method, it is running at the exact same weight

Therefore, following step 7, this horse meets the criteria and can be a selection. This is because a Class 3 race is 7lb harder than Class 4. It has lost 7lb in actual weight but has gained 7lb in race difficulty.

Now let’s assume that in today’s race, Horse A’s weight is 11st. In reality its weight has only risen by 7lb (there are 14lb in 1 stone) and so we would think this meets step 7’s criteria. Wrong. Today’s Class is one higher, meaning it is 7lb harder. So Horse A has risen 7lb in actual weight, plus the 7lb rise in Class, meaning that its weight has increased by 14lb.

Therefore, following step 7, in this example the horse does not meet the criteria and will not be a selection.

Another example: Horse A’s latest race was a Class 5 and its weight was 11st. Horse A is in today’s race which is a Class 6. Its weight today is 11st 9lb. It has risen 9lb in actual weight however the Class is one lower and so we take off 7lb as it is easier. Therefore Horse A’s weight has only risen by 2lb and this would be a selection.

Remember it like this:

If the Class is higher= Actual weight difference + 7lb per higher Class If the Class is lower= Actual weight difference – 7 lb per lower Class

Now you have done this with your remaining selections, cross out any that has risen by 7lb since its last race.

I realise this is complicated at first but once you have done it a few times it will come to you naturally.

 

Any horses that are left after you have been through the stages become your selections. If there is more than one you bet on them all however you will rarely get more than one in a race.

Finally, for any races where you have a selection in, add the favourite to your picks as well. If you already have more than one selection then do not do this. If your selection is the favourite, then keep to just that horse.

The reason for adding the favourite is that the wins will come up more frequently whilst not sacrificing the odds too much and the following staking plan works perfectly with frequent winners. The age old stat is that favourites win a third of the time. When we add this to our well sought after selection, we are looking at a winner nearly 50% of the time.

Now for the staking plan which takes full advantage of our selections...

 

The Staking Plan

The biggest running loss I have had in a sequence before making profit has been about 30pts. Take this into consideration when deciding on what value to assign to a point.           

Continue along the plan until a profit is made for that sequence. As soon as a profit is made, restart at 3pts

Bet 1: 3pts

Bet 2: 2pts

Bet 3: 1pt

Bet 4: 4pts

Bet 5: 5pts

Now if we still don’t have a profit after Bet 5 then the following rules are to be followed.

If your latest bet is a loser then increase the stake by 1pt. For example:

If Bet 5 loses at 5pts then Bet 6 will be 6pts If Bet 9 loses at 8pts then Bet 10 will be 9pts

If your latest bet is a winner but is still not showing a profit for the sequence then adjust the stakes depending on the following:

•  If the winning bet was backed at odds on then the stake will remain the same

Example: If Bet 6 wins with 6pts on a 1-2 then Bet 7 will be 6pts

•        If the winning bet was backed at odds from Evens to 6-4 inclusive then reduce

the stake by 1pt

Example: If Bet 8 wins with 8pts on a 6-4 then Bet 9 will be 7pts

•        If the winning bet was backed at odds from 6-4 to 2-1 inclusive then reduce

the stake by 2pts

Example: If Bet 7 wins with 7pts on a 2-1 then Bet 8 will be 5pts

 

•         If the winning bet was backed at odds greater than 2-1 then reduce the stake

by 3pts

Example: If Bet 10 wins with 9pts on a 3-1 then Bet 11 will be 6pts

There are three vital points to remember when using the above rules:

•         If the sequence goes into profit, restart at Bet 1

•         The stake is never to be reduced below 5pts. So even if a winner is backed

with 6pts on a 2-1, the stake is only reduced to 5pts

• If your stake was split between multiple selections in a race and one wins, work out the odds by subtracting the stakes of the losers from the winner’s profit. Then divide this by your total stake for the race to find the true odds

How to split the stake between numerous horses

Each race you bet on will generally feature your selection from the method above, plus the favourite. The stake you are on in the plan is the total for that race. It is not the stake per horse.

The most important point is that the total stake for the race is split so that you would potentially win the same amount regardless as to which selection wins

To do this, simply have the website below open, type in the prices of each of the selections, and at the bottom the total stake that you are on with the plan:

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html

 

Final points to remember

•        Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Look at the staking plan and work out the worst case scenario before deciding on what value to assign to a point

•         You must follow each step of the selection method with discipline. A horse

can only become a selection if it passes all 7 steps

•         Any race where you have a selection, add the favourite to your picks

•         Follow the staking plan with great discipline

•         The stake is to be split so that you win the same amount regardless as to

which of your selections win

•   

HIGHLY RECOMMENDED SITE:

Bet365: When you take a price betting on a horse on this site, if it starts the race at a higher price, you get paid to the higher one!

For example you bet on a horse taking 4/1. When the race begins the horse is 8/1. Bet365 will give you the 8/1! I know no other website doing this.