The Secret Way to Tennis Profits
Introduction
This document is probably the shortest publication in today’s market, but yet one of the most effective money making tools you will find anywhere. Before I start explaining this fantastic money making opportunity, I would like for you to make me two promises:-
- Do not share this information with anyone from now onwards this will be your secret money making system. Think of this information as your business trade secret. If you owned a highly successful business, you wouldn’t share your secrets with others, would you? Well please treat this information the same way. Remember you have not invested in just this publication, but in the information/secret it carries.
- Start treating your betting strategy as a business by focusing on long term profits. Start right now and set aside an amount for your bets, this will be called your betting bank. All successful betters use a betting bank, treating this bank similar to owning a limited liability Company. Depending on your budget you can start with either £10, £50, £100 or £200 or any other amount that you are comfortable with. Now use only 5% of your betting bank for each bet. Keep doing this until you are happy with the size of the bets you are using, and the profit this bet size is generating for you. When you reach this stage you simply stop increasing the size of your bank and bets and start to withdraw the profits every month or so.
Very important……
Do not be disheartened by the results of just one week or even if you had a ‘not so good’ month. Although this system has proven to generate profit year after year for the past nine years, there were some losing weeks and five losing months where small losses were made. This is part of doing business. If you cannot accept the fact that all businesses have their ‘ups and downs’ then maybe you are just not cut out for making money from any business venture. The important thing is that in the mid to long run you are guaranteed to make very nice profits!
So, in the unlikely event you do end up starting out on an ‘average’ month, just hand on as massive tennis profits are just around the corner and your patience will be fruitfully rewarded!
Even more important…….
For legal reasons I have to say this. Although all results have been proven over the past 9 years, no guarantees can be made on the future profitability of any system, including this one. If you wish too minimise risk, paper trial the system before investing any of your real money. I am sure you will have a very profitable future with this system, just like the profits my other users are enjoying right now.
GOOD LUCK
The Secret Way to Tennis Profits
The System
You are just about to discover a money making technique that will change your life, for the better, forever!
So sit back, relax, take a deep breath and enjoy……
You’ve probably read that in tennis matches there are no draws and the favourite wins far more often than the outsider. However, you cannot be profitable simply by betting on all the favourites. There are certain simple rules you will need to follow to make massive amounts of cash from tennis betting over your life time.
The Principle of Picking Winners in Tennis Matches
The greater the gap between the favourite and the outsider, the higher your strike rate will be!
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Using the above principle I have devised two rules that when followed maximises your winnings whilst dramatically helping you to avoid matches that reduce your long term profits.
Two Simple Rules for selecting consistent long term winners…..
Rule 1:
The minimum dividend of the favourite player has to be £1.45 or more. So if the favourite is paying £1.14, £1.30 or £1.44….ignore the match (I’ll soon explain why)
Rule 2:
The difference in the dividends between the favourite and the outsider has to be 50p or more.
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The Secret Way to Tennis Profits
So Here’s why it works……
First of all you will think that the favourite in matches such as these…..
Favourite: £1.14
Outsider: £5.30
….. would have a much higher chance of winning and should provide long term profits.
However, they don’t! the problem with matches like these is that the dividend is simply too low to invest in when compared to favourites in other matches. If you analyse the long term trend, profits are significantly increased by eliminating all favourites paying less than £1.45 for a win. Therefore £1.45 is the optimal minimum win dividend for a favourite.
Now by using rule 2 we want to ensure that the favourite has got more than just a fighting chance of winning the match. £0.50 pence is the absolute minimum discrepancy we would accept between the dividend of the favourite and the outsider. Naturally the larger the discrepancy, the more likely it is that the favourite will win. However, when you only select favourites that have a very large discrepancy (say £1.00), you significantly the reduce the number of matches you can bet on, thus reducing your overall profits.
So by sticking to rule 2 exactly as it is, my long term strike rate settled at 74.3% returning £1.74 dividend per winning bet per average. However, if you would like to achieve such a strike rate in the short run, you can increase the gap to say £0.80 pence or £0.90 pence.
Let’s explore some examples……
Here’s a typical daily schedule for tennis betting
Bet
|
Players
|
Dividends
|
1
|
|
£1.90
£1.85
|
2
|
|
£1.80
£1.95
|
3
|
|
£1.75
£2.00
|
4
|
|
£2.35
£1.55
|
5
|
|
£1.70
£2.05
|
6
|
|
£5.00
£1.14
|
7
|
|
£3.10
£1.33
|
8
|
|
£1.20
£4.20
|
9
|
|
£1.45
£2.60
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The Secret Way to Tennis Profits
Let me explain each match……
Bet 1
1. J Melzer £1.90
2. F Vincente £1.85
This match does not qualify for a bet. The favourite (Player 2) does qualify under Rule 1 but the gap between the dividends is only £0.05 pence…. Therefore it fails Rule 2. These are the types of matches you want to steer clear off!!
Bet 2
1. A Roddick £1.80
2. T Hass £1.95
This match does not qualify for a bet. This is very similar to the above match (BET 1). The favourite (PLAYER 1) does qualify under Rule 1 but fails Rule 2 as the gap between the dividends is only £0.15 pence….
Bet 3
1. V Spadea £1.75
2. M Fish £2.00
This match does not qualify for a bet. The favourite (PLAYER 1) qualifies under Rule 1 but fails Rule 2 as the gap between the dividends is only £0.25 pence. We require a minimum of £0.50 pence for it to qualify.
The Secret Way to Tennis Profits
Bet 4
1. G Garcia-Lopez £2.35
2. F Verdasco £1.55
This match does qualify. The favourite (PLAYER 2) passes Rule 1 as the dividend is above £1.45 and passes Rule 2 as the gap in the dividends is £0.80 pence the minimum requirement is only £0.50 pence.
Bet 5
1. M Safin £1.70
2. G Gaudio £2.05
This match does not qualify. The favourite (PLAYER 1) passes Rule 1 but fails Rule 2 as the gap between the dividends is only £0.35.
Bet 6
1. C Castona £5.00
2. M Petrova £1.14
This match does not qualify. The favourite (PLAYER 2) fails Rule 1 as it is below the minimum dividend of £1.45. Although it passes Rule 2 with the gap being £3.86… the low dividend of the favourite makes it not profitable in the long run.
Bet 7
1. AL Groenefeld £3.10
2. S Kuznetsova £1.33
This match does not qualify. The favourite (PLAYER 2) fails Rule 1. This match is similar to Bet 6 above.
The Secret Way to Tennis Profits
Bet 8
1. J Henin-Hardenne £1.20
2. D Safina £4.20
This match does not qualify for the exact same reason as Bet 7 & Bet 6.
Bet 9
1. P Schndyer £1.45
2. N Dechy £2.60
This match does qualify. The favourite (PLAYER 1) just passes Rule 1 and easily passes Rule 2 the gap is £1.15.
How to Spot Qualifying Bets in Seconds
I have just given you 9 examples. As you’ve seen, spotting winners is easy, very easy in fact! At one glance at the daily schedule you’ll find matches that do not qualify at all. These matches would be where the dividend of the favourite and outsider are very close.
Example: Favourite: £1.70
Outsider: £1.90
Also you’d eliminate in seconds are matches where the favourite is paying below £1.45.
Example: Favourite: £1.16
Outsider: £3.10
Now you’d be left with matches where the dividend looks like these:
Favourite: £1.55
Outsider: £2.10
Favourite: £1.47
Outsider: £2.85
Favourite: £1.75
Outsider: £2.00
….. And so forth
All you’d have to do now is subtract the two dividends. If the answer is equal or greater than £0.50…. you have a bet, it really is AS SIMPLE AS THAT!!
The Secret Way to Tennis Profits
Follow These Guidelines to Achieve the Results as Described
Tournament Matches…….
Early rounds of any tournament match are always geared to give disappointing results, as the players seem to be ‘testing the waters’ and not give it their 100% effort. So, I have devised a system to avoid wasting money on such early round matches. Basically avoid ALL first round matches of any tournament and only bet on second round matches with the biggest spread. Naturally you’d want to bet on all third and final round matches.
I have some clients who only bet on third round and final matches!
Hunt for Better Dividends if you Can!…….
Even a small gain in dividend can make a huge difference at the end of the year. For this reason it is highly recommended that you always hunt for the best dividend. However, if you are just starting out, don’t be too fussed about hunting around for the best dividends. Use a fairly large and reputable bookmaker and stick to it.
Coming up next is the profit summary for the past 9 years…
The Secret Way to Tennis Profits
Results Summary Based on £150 Bets At Level Stakes
Year 1 Results Summary
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Number of Bets Bets Won Bets Lost
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806 626 180
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PROFIT – YEAR 1
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Yearly: £37,220 Monthly: £3,101 Weekly: £715.76
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Year 2 Results Summary
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Number of Bets Bets Won Bets Lost
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904 676 228
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PROFIT – YEAR 2
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Yearly: £42,896 Monthly: £3,574 Weekly: £824.92
|
Year 3 Results Summary
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Number of Bets Bets Won Bets Lost
|
633 501 132
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PROFIT – YEAR 3
|
Yearly: £28,684 Monthly: £2,390 Weekly: £551.61
|
Year 4 Results Summary
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Number of Bets Bets Won Bets Lost
|
1014 711 303
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PROFIT – YEAR 4
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Yearly: £49,101 Monthly: £4,091 Weekly: £944.25
|
Year 5 Results Summary
|
Number of Bets Bets Won Bets Lost
|
702 481 221
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PROFIT – YEAR 5
|
Yearly: £36,432 Monthly: £3,306 Weekly: £700.61
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The Secret Way to Tennis Profits
Year 6 Results Summary
|
Number of Bets Bets Won Bets Lost
|
1112 818 294
|
PROFIT – YEAR 6
|
Yearly: £43,112 Monthly: £3,592 Weekly: £829.07
|
Year 7 Results Summary
|
Number of Bets Bets Won Bets Lost
|
776 587 189
|
PROFIT – YEAR 7
|
Yearly: £40,802 Monthly: £3,400 Weekly: £784.65
|
Year 8 Results Summary
|
Number of Bets Bets Won Bets Lost
|
815 590 225
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PROFIT – YEAR 8
|
Yearly: £30,202 Monthly: £2,516 Weekly: £580.80
|
Year 9 Results Summary
|
Number of Bets Bets Won Bets Lost
|
1119 863 256
|
PROFIT – YEAR 9
|
Yearly: £37,486 Monthly: £3,123 Weekly: £720.88
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The Secret Way to Tennis Profits
Some Things To Remember
I personally hunt for better dividends
Because my bets are now substantial, even a small gain in dividend can make a huge difference at the end of the year. However, if you are just starting out, don’t be too fussed about hunting around for the best dividends. Use a fairly large and reputable bookmaker and stick to it.
What to do if the dividends vary drastically at the various bookmakers
First of all always bet with a large bookmaker where the bet volume is huge. Doing so will ensure to a certain degree that the dividends offered by the bookmaker are accurate and stable. However if you find that your ‘large and stable’ bookmaker has a bet that does not qualify under the two rules BUT some other bookmaker has the same bet as ‘qualified’ – DO NOT make the bet. However if you ‘large and stable’ bookmaker has a qualified bet but the bet doesn’t qualify at other bookmakers – go ahead with the bet.
How I control my strike rate
Sometimes if I’m having a bad run I temporarily modify Rule 2 and bet only when the gap between the favourite and outsider dividend is £0.80p or £0.90p or more. I keep doing this until my strike rate and profit stabilises and then I go back to the £0.50p gap rule.
When to place your bets
I usually place all my bets in the morning and forget about them, it doesn’t bother me if the dividends change. The good thing about tennis betting is that the dividends do not fluctuate that much and they are pretty consistent throughout most of the reputable bookmakers.
The different ways dividends are displayed
All my workings, examples in this document are in decimal odds. By the way, a dividend is just another way of saying odds. Websites such as Bet365 have the option to display the odds in decimal or fractional format as do most other major bookmakers.
The Secret Way to Tennis Profits
Currency differences
I’ve used £ to represent monetary value of the bets but the same two rules apply to all markets, UK, USA, AUS, NZ, SA etc. You can apply the rules in your own currency by taking the decimals only (Rule one: 1.45 & Rule two: 0.50 spread)
Doubles, men or women matches
My stats are based on single matches only, NOT doubles. The stats are based on betting on both men and women’s matches.
Which player is the favourite
Some of you may be new to betting and this very obvious selection process may not be so obvious. The favourite is the player with the lower odds/dividends. The other player is the outsider. Example: Player A £1.65, Player B £2.05. Player A is the favourite.
I Wish You A Very Profitable Future!!!
(^o^)
ReplyDeleteDo you also avoid Semi matches as well?
ReplyDeleteYou are using the Tennis Cash system. The system is flawed two wins and a loss results in you breaking even. One win and a loss results in a loss. The system does produce a high number of winners, but the price lets it down. It might work better on the betting exchanges.
ReplyDeletewhen you started this sistem what amount of money you placed on every bet?
ReplyDeleteAll irrelevant without value. If you find value bets at these prices you will make money. If you just go in blindly you will break even or more likely lose money. Simple as that.
ReplyDeletelet us take 626 wins and 180 losses for 1st year......50% profit on winning bet and 100% loss on loosing bet....31300 profit and 18000 loss.....it means 13300 profit...you are showing a lot more...what is the stake plan......you are trying to give half picture ....people will play and ruin their money if they wont find that strike rate.....if u want to tell give proper picture
ReplyDeleteAvoid. "Average dividend = £1.74", average strike rate = 74%". This is not mathematically possible in long term. Implied probability of a 1.74 bet winning is 57% and this would lead to a loss.
ReplyDeleteInteresting system but the math in the results tables does not add up at all.
ReplyDeleteRubbish.
ReplyDeleteTo cut the crap you should bet only the favorites between 1.45 and 1.70, so you don't have to do any math in finding the right matches.
Then, after analysing last few years using pinnacle odds here are the results for $1 for a bet:
Favorite winning: 3096 x 1.58 average ods=$1796
Underdog winning: 1934=-$1934
Total= -$138
Nice, why not backing underdog? OK, let's do it:
Underdog winning: 1934 x 2.57 average ods= $3036
Favorite winning: 3096= -$3096
Total=-$60
You lose either way, even with the wig of only 2%, which is the best in the industry.
So it does not work.So how about using the rules,but betting 2 or 3 player parlays.You would reduce the amount risked.
ReplyDeleteOctober 21, 2014 post - don't know how you get rubbish - where did you come up with 1.45 and 1.7? Those aren't the only possibilities. Where were you able to back test every single match in the world for the past 20 years?
ReplyDeleteAlso - from what I've seen so far running this model, the underdogs are actually winning more than the favorites by a margin of 2:1 - to me the underdogs are a much better bet.
I agree his winnings math are off here. You'd need about 70% win rates to make any money here, not necessarily 80% win rates - and there's no evidence betting basically 2:1 favorites win 70% of the time. If they do, this system makes sense.
ReplyDeleteIf I bet 10 dollars 1000 times and win 700 at roughly 50% profit = $3500.
I then lose 200 times at full lose = $2000
So I net $1500
Rather, lose 300 times = $3000 so net $500
DeleteJust completed my first week, ignoring ALL first round matches & following his rules to the letter.
ReplyDelete63 matches, 44 winners, 19 losers. 70% success rate. Average odds for the winners were 0.53.
Therefore, 44 x 0.53 = 23.3 - 19 = 4.3 points profit. I used £50 per bet, so was up £215. I will continue & see how it goes.
I would add that his average return of 0.74 per bet over the past 9 years is now no longer possible, looking at bookies odds today. The best I have seen last week was 0.61. I only put bets on with a minimum of 0.50 return not 0.45 as he has suggested.
Let me know if anyone else is testing his system.
Cheers
Just completed first week and it has worked well with one major adjustment to the system. Use the same mathematical system then back the underdog instead of favourite. Slightly less winners but prices make it more profitable.
ReplyDeleteI also use doubles matches too..
Thanks mate, for the feedback will paper trade both the original and your modification and see how it goes.
DeleteOkay. Let us know how it goes for you. I certainly won't be making any assumptions after a week and it'd be good to hear some other opinions.
DeleteI've now completed 3 weeks, 214 matches, 130 winners, 84 losses. Success rate only 61%. 130 x 0.57 = 74 - 84 = -10 points. I think I've covered matches now to say that I won't be pursuing it any more. The number of matches covered ie 214 equals c. fifth of ALL his matches in the last year of his betting. Although it was only over 3 weeks, I think that the number of matches covered shows that his system doesn't now work, due to the lower return per bet.
ReplyDeleteGood luck anyone else that tries his system!!
guys the only thing i can see working to some success is using the martingale system. i know its not the best sort of system but i think for tennis it definitely is the right sort of system to make some sort of profit.
ReplyDeletejust bet on favorites at odds of 1.45 or over and if you loss whatever stake you had laid on that bet ignore that and find another tennis match with favorites at odds of 1.45 or more and double your initial stake etc i mean c'mon what are the chances of favorites losing all the time. surely 1 in 3 favorites would win just keep doubling and doesn't have to be a big bet either but obviously a bigger bankroll would be better.
Unless you have a huge bank to start with,Martingale isn't recommended.
DeleteAlso, at 1.45, you could find yourself in trouble quickly. When it comes to tennis, systems that rely on backing the underdog is always more profitable in the long run.
Forget the Martingale. Martingale, and any other staking system will always be a zero-sum game (it has to be). I agree that this Tenniscash system probably WOULDN'T work in general, mainly because his strike rate is 74.26% while betting on average odds of 1.74. The implied probability of odds 1.74 is 57.49% - yet he somehow managed to win 74% of 8000 matches? That sounds like really lucky streak defying the implied probability, which means either the market perception was way off -- REGULARLY and by A LOT -- and too heavily favored the underdog, leading to more favorable odds for the favorite. This would be a mighty hefty assumption, because as you know, if anything, the market tends to back favorites more, and any good bet values are mostly found in underdogs. Betting on underdogs leads to spottier data when backtesting, which is why its success can be either overlooked or overstated. I'm digressing. I'm interested to see a backtest and graph to see the correlation between implied probability (as dictated by avg. market odds) and actual strike rate, not only to test/disprove this, but also to find some real patterns in the market. Betting on players with educated guesses is one thing, but finding strategies using market odds is another. I have always theorized that it's possible to find a tennis betting system that is largely analytical towards odds/patterns.
Deletehttp://tennis-tips.co.uk
ReplyDeleteContinued from 1 hr ago - I spent a half hour with the purported numbers from the OP. According to my math:
ReplyDeleteEach bet risked 150 units flat
7881 total bets
5853 wins
2028 losses
.7426 strike rate
1,182,150 units risked
304,200 units lost via 2028 losses
345,935 units won via 5853 wins
profit of 345,935 units divided into 877,950 (amount risked in winning bets only) = .39
Thus, his average odds for this 9 year period is 1.39, which has an implied probability of 72%. The instructions say to never go below 1.45, so not only did he go below 1.45 often, he went below well-more than half the time to have mean odds of 1.39.
How to starting in this game ?
DeleteHi there. Starting today I'm trying on paper a system to bet on underdogs at early stages. Let's see.
ReplyDeletePrincipe di Sacerno
See this when betting on underdogs:
Deletehttp://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/sport/the-choke-factor-in-tennis-betting
Try this system:
ReplyDeletebefore start, back bet favorite with 1,30 - 1,50 in betfair or betdaq, if winning wait until the end, if loosing from the start, lay bet and take loose 30 - 50% of stake (loose % deppends of the back odds)
iliak@bk.ru
Trading tennis Backing at 1.3.. why bother ? - the return is going to be small... and likely at some stage in the game the price is going to rise... which is when fear sets in and you bale out... only for the match to return to the favourite and an eventual win.... so you loose overall...
ReplyDeleteI had a look at this strategy over the year 2014 and found the following - took the ATP and WTA results from the tennis data website and put the lot into an excel spreadsheet, extracted the results in groupps according to the fav. deceimal ie 1.1, 1.2, 1.3 -- 1.8 and worked the results as a % for win /lose. It is amazing how balanced the results are in terms of returns for the fav and non fav - the prefect market for the bookies. Interestingly there was a drift towards profit in the 1.7 and 1.8 deceimal in 2014 but you would have stake a lot of bets [at risk !] to get it. I started the same excercise for 2015 but it was completely balanced [ so far ].Basically it confirms the above comments about not working with the odds available these days.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I did see an oppurtunity in the 1.6 and 1.7 range as the win/ lose in percentages was not far off 50/50 so I started a paper trial of backing the non fav [ typically 2.0 to 2.2 odds] and on the basis of an near even result, doubled up when I lost. As the wins and losses came round regularily [ unlike online roulette where I have seen red turn up 18 times in a row ! the reason martingale doesn't work ] over 6 months, with a basic bet of 5 units, the max bet roll required was 155 units [ 5,10,20,40,80 was the max betting sequence].
It seem to give a return of 100% over 4 weeks.
Anyway, I started with real money and just finished 4 weeks and the returns are holding up on the basis I place 2 bets a day, the 2nd only when I know the result of the 1st. Heading into the 2nd month and I'll report at the end .
Interesting insight, keep us posted mate.
DeleteCould you please explain your system with more details. I am really interested and will give it a try.
Deletewatch tennis and bet live...math can help you couple times but it will never earn you money...
ReplyDeletefollow up to my post, 2 above.Completed 2nd month and strategy is holding up. Unfortunately tennis season is finishing up till Jan 2016. Summary of results = doubled my bet roll in 3 weeks by betting 2/3 times a day on the underdog every time on games that were at 1.72 to 2.0.[on analysis of past win/losses, this gave the closest 50/50% win /lose balance] I bet 5 units at odds of 2.0. If I won, the next bet is again 5 units, If I lost, I doubled up. I did not have to double up to beyond 80 units as I would win on the 5th bet after 4 losses [ sequence of betting = 5,10,20,40,80 total bet roll 155] This happened about 3 times in the period and needed a steady hand to commit1/2 the bet roll on the 5th bet but it worked for last 2 months. I am betting in euros, generally picked a game in the morning, 1 in the afternoon/ evening each day.The bet roll doubled quicker than I expected because the underdog won more times than the favorite in the last month[ 58%]. Interested to see if anyone else might paper trial this in Jan, I'll be figuring out a way meanwhile to get my regular winnings out of bookies with a hedge strategy because I hear all but a few close accounts of consistent winners !!!
ReplyDeleteHi, did you keep getting the same results in 2016? Cheers!
Deletei agree with glen baker if you bet on the under dog you will get profits, i just analysed my past 30 games with this system with which i made a terrible loss which made me almost give up on betting but i realized that if i had bet on the underdog in all games i would have made an awesome profit
ReplyDeleteive renewed my betting account and am about to try new method
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ReplyDeleteHello nice seeing but I have not understand ur tip
ReplyDeleteHi, i have read the whole column from the top to bottom. Which is the best method then to try. Am very new in this betting thing
ReplyDeleteWith winning odds of 1.45 you need to win twice as many as you loose just to break even - yet the yearly summary shows a profit with less than a 2:1 win ratio - this is mathematically impossible
ReplyDeletePlease comment
DeleteSorry I dont uderstand IT.Are you ber ONLY favorite player 150?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteAll above methods and calculation will lead to loss and bankrupt. I am earning my livelihood through tennis betting. I know few mix combination method to always win my bet.
ReplyDeleteHi guys, can Any One predict volatile tennis matches
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