A very successfully system 2015 You'll need to firstly open Betfair Account and add funds, ideally £110 to take £50+ per day or else £55 will return around £25+ per day.

Please read carefully, any queries please Post on the Forum.
You'll need to firstly open Betfair Account and add funds, ideally £110 to take £50+ per day or else £55 will return around £25+ per day.
You can start with less but this means your profit per day will be less also.
If you wish, you is wait until half time and the game being 0 - 0 would then lay the Correct Score at half time, meaning their liabilities is much less, meaning to profit £10 at half time, you'd only have to lay around odds off 3 on Betfair,
The System doesn't require much work, I spend 20 minutes each morning picking my matches for that day.
I personally wait till half time in the leagues and then look at teams that are 0–0 at half time, then lay the Correct Score for £11, meaning my liabilities is only £30.
Don’t be frustrated that you’re only winning £10 per trade, because over the course of month you’d be expected to earn £1500+ per month.


The Rules


Next it’s important to view the Head-To-Head of both Wigan & Blackpool will use www.flashscores.co.uk. for this there is a number of websites that can show this type of information, we Open Flash Scores then select Scheduled tab,


Next, you’ll see the Wigan game kick off at 19:15 as stated on the Betfair
website, we will select the game and now view its Head-To-Head Statistics
Simply select the Wigan game, then H2H Tab, Then Wigan –
Home tab, this will display the last 5 games Wigan had at home, it’s important to look at the goals scored, in this case Wigan have scored 10 goals in their last 5 Home games, we are looking for 6+ goals scored in last 5 games at home.
Next, we select the Blackpool – Away tab and see if Blackpool are scoring away from home, in this case they have scored 5 away goals in their last 5 games, which is great as we are looking for 4+ goals.


Finally we will look at H2H stats and in the last 5 games, in all 5 occasions there has been goals, previous game on 28th February 2015 finished 1:3 (Wigan)


Wigan Home
111111111111111111111112222222.png
Blackpool Away
2222222222222222111111.png


Head-To-Head Matches, you’ll see appear at the bottom of each screenshot, just to recap the rules we require before we decide on a potential betting opportunity...


a) Home Team Must Have 6+ Goals in their LAST 5 GAMES at HOME


b) Away Team Must Have 4+ Goals in their LAST 5 GAMES AWAY


c) Head-To-Head Must Always Show Goals Between Both Sides (NO 0-0 DRAW)


Quick Tip – I also tend to look and see if while playing at home, has there been goals conceded against them, in their last 5 games, meaning defence could be poor and allow for more goals.


Next, visit the Betfair Exchange website, select Football > Today > Wigan v Blackpool, then navigate to Correct Score market, displayed along the top.
What we aim to do in here is to LAY the 0-0 Correct Score, you’ll see in Lay in RED and a number displayed in this case 17


11111111111111111111111.png


Our LAY odds must be 11 or less for us to profit £10 per game, normally this is the case odds will be around 11 or less, but on this occasion they aren’t. Though, what we can do is wait until the match is in play at 19:15 and keep checking on the odds until they are 11 or less, then place the bet. Usually 15 minutes after kick-off if the result remains at 0-0 the odds will be around 9-11 which means we can then place our bet.
You can also, set the odds to 11 yourself, and when the game is In Play then the bet will  be struck once the odds reach 11. For example…


22222222222222222222222.png


On the left I have set the odds to be 11 and on the right I am Staking how much profit I want to make so £11, which means my Liability is £110, which is what I have as my Betfair Balance. So basically, I am putting up £110 to win £11 pounds. As the game progresses the odds off a 0-0 will decrease, meaning laying 0 – 0 correct score at half time, you put up for example £110 will win you £25.
This we are not intended as our aim is to make £11 per game, and have roughly 5 games per day, meaning £50+ per day. If you’ wait to half time, you are risking the chance that a goal is scored in first half meaning, you haven’t got on in time.


a) Home Team Must Have 6+ Goals in their LAST 5 GAMES at HOME


b) Away Team Must Have 4+ Goals in their LAST 5 GAMES AWAY


c) Head-To-Head Must Always Show Goals Between Both Sides


(NO 0-0 DRAW)


Also, only trade on the Correct Score market, and odds off 11 and below, always remember that you are Laying 0 – 0 Correct Score Line.

To Conclude, this is an excellent system and real opportunity to make additional income from only 20 minutes work each month, I tend to do my research in the morning and make a note of which matches I tend to trade that day, you may decide to research 20 minutes in the evening before which is totally 100%, it is just important to keep eye on the Correct Score odds as sometimes they can be 17 and too high for us to trade. We need make sure they are 11 and below, and like in the example provided, we waited 10 minutes in play and secured the 11 odds.

All the bankroll you'll need to start earning the same I have is £100, never any more. I started with £110 bankroll. By all means not everyone can spare a hundred pound straight off so if that is you I would recommend minimum balance of £40 and then we will build it up to £100 and that’s what you'll use to make £50+ a day.



I have a Unique Football Betting System, eBook created by myself which I use to make money every day. 
Introduction

I hope to show others what I do and hopefully give an idea and guidance on how anyone can do it.
The way I make my money involves “LAY” bets, if you've never heard of laying then it means to bet that something won't happen. Google it if you want to know more in depth about laying.

All you need to get started is a Betfair exchange account, I'm not affiliated with them so I'll not post a link, just type it into Google and create an account if you don’t have one. I highly recommend you download the Betfair exchange app on your phone because the app notifies you when a major event has happened in the game. I also recommend downloading betfair sportsbook app because its easier when you’re out and about to find all of the football being played that day.



All the bankroll you'll need to start earning the same I have is £100, never any more. I started with £110 bankroll. By all means not everyone can spare a hundred pound straight off so if that is you I would recommend minimum balance of £40 and then we will build it up to £100 and that’s what you'll use to make £50+ a day.

I make only 5 bets per day, if I'm up really early in the morning or have a late night I might
squeeze in one
more if the stats are looking good.

THE KEY IS NOT TO BE GREEDY AND BE PATIENT.

The Method

Step 1: Check all of 'today’s' football match listings on betfair, if you're using the app then open up Betfair sportsbook>Menu>Football>>Coming up>Today.

This will give you a list of nearly every football game being played that day in order of kick off times.

Scroll through and find a bunch of games that are kicking off the same time and look through to see if you can find a match that stands out. Look at the odds to see if there are any jump out at you.

Here is an example: note the 2 matches at the top are the same, must have been a glitch with the app.

mobi.png

now they all look like potential matches.

Step 2: Google Team A (AC Sparta Praha) v Team B (FK Mlada Boleslav) H2H

This should bring up a list of results, the one we are looking for is Team A v Team B on Soccerpunter.com. I will circle everything you need to look at.

88screenshot-{domain} {date} {time}.png

The top circle is where to find the game on betfair if you decide its the right pick. Circled under the team badges are the outcome of each teams last 5 games, the latest result is on the left. I can see both teams haven’t lost their last 4 games so I will look further.

87screenshot-{domain} {date} {time}.png

Next I look at how many matches have been won and lost by both teams. Check which team is home and which team is away and look at the stats to see how many games each team has Won, Lost and Drawn. You can see Mlada Boleslav haven’t lost at home and Sparta praha haven’t lost an away game.

86screenshot-{domain} {date} {time}.png

Next I look at the history between the two teams. I'm looking for something that stands out. A team that has won the majority of games, the amount of goals scored, any draws. Also look at the halftime score on the right column next to the + symbol. Has a team won both halves? Has there been a draw both halves?

By looking at this you see that Sparta Praha have won the last 4 meetings, mlada boleslav have scored less than 2 goals in the past 10 meeting. Also notice that there has not been a draw in both halves. ( in the most recent game at the top, it was a draw at halftime then sparta praha went on to win. I also notice that there has never been a 0-0 between the two teams. This is what I’ll looking at further and be betting on but before I make that decision, i'll make sure its the right one.

85screenshot-{domain} {date} {time}.png

The last stat I'll look at is the most important one, if you have an idea of what looks like a good bet by analysing the other stats then this will set that in stone. This will determine if I will make the bet or have to have another look through the game for another market.

I'll look at every stat, because there hasn’t been a 0-0 draw between the sides ill look at the goalless draw match. Check to see if the home team and away team have ever had a goalless draw. I can see that so far they haven’t, so that will be my bet. Anything under 3% would still qualify in my book and I would still continue with a goalless draw.

Step 3: Finding the match and laying the bet. The Lay market is always highlighted in RED.

You can see here (picture on the left) that I have found the match on betfair and I'm wanting to lay the score 0-0 at the odds of 8. This means if I win (ends any score but 0-0) I will win £11 minus 5% for betfair as commission so I will come out with £10.45. if I Lose (ends in 0-0) I stand to lose £77. This may seem like a lot to risk for £11 but all the stats have showed that this hasn't happened for a long long time.

mobi2.png

The picture on the right is what it looks like when bets have been matched. As you can see, if the score ends 0-0 I will lose £77 and if there is any other score. I win £11 (minus betfairs 5% commission).

The reason I tell you to download the app is for notifications when your chosen match starts in the example below on the left.

And as you can see from the picture on the right, within 14 mins AC Sparta praha scored which means I’ve won £11 already

mobi3.png

DONT BE GREEDY AND BE VERY PATIENT
The next step is very important and makes the difference between if you'll succeed or if you'll get greedy and fail.

Even though I've won that bet already, I can't cash out for the full amount of £11 profit, this is because there are so many bets going on. I won't go into that too much because this works in my favor.

Having to wait till the end of the game to get the full profit means that I can't rush into another bet and lose. I leave about a 2 hour gap between matches and I never ever have 2 bets going at once. This one kicked off at 12pm so once I'd known I had won I started looking at any matches that start around 2pm. Now head back to the top and repeat for the next game.

Good luck I'm Sure you wont need it.

SUMMARY

I use this method every day and spend no more than 10-15mins researching a match to make sure its the right one. If you have a busy day ahead then by all means do all your research in the morning so that when one match finishes you know exactly what bet you're making next.

Don't be greedy, 5 bets per day makes £350+ a week which is really good as a second income. Betting more in hopes of making more money could occasionally work but if and I say if you lose ( and we all will from time to time) you don’t want your whole bankroll wiped out. I have only lost once this year. Which is an amazing ratio (it could be luck or that this detailed research does work)

What to bet on:

I only ever LAY bet on
  1. Correct score
  2. Half time/ Full time
  3. To draw

Only use betfair odds of:

Depending on your bankroll only lay a bet if its odds are between 7.0 and 15.5.

I started with £110 so I made sure that the odds I layed were below 10 until I built it up a bit. Any odds below that are more than likely not to come in and for anything higher, they probably won't come in but if you have an unlucky day or miss something and it come out. Bye bye bank roll.


All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the publisher. While examples given are real I can not and will not be held responsible for any losses occurred following this method. This is for educational purposes only.

PLEASE GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY


Recent wins




The system is about betting the Final Score 0-0 We know that the 0-0 result is fairly rare, but it is not difficult to predict if we have the right tools and the right analysis policy ,We also need two aids:one from the bookmakers and one from the statistics
Clever 0-0 Betting System
Introduction

The system is about betting the Final Score 0-0

We know that the 0-0 result is fairly rare, but it is not difficult to predict if we have the right tools and the right analysis policy ,We also need two aids:one from the bookmakers and one from the statistics


Since about 75% of our selections that will not finish 0-0 will have a total of 1-2 goals,we will also place a little bet on Under 2.5

Match Analysis

SCIBET(www.scibet.com) it’s a powerful site that will help us to make the right selection




We need to analyse every single match,
to do this we can click the stats box (placed in the middle of each match),do not worry, we will discard not valid games very quickly!

Now take a look at below stats screen carefully, because it contains the PERFECT RECIPE for our bet!




First,look at the graphs:the defense line is clearly higher than the attack line,and that is valid for both teams,the lines do not have big changes and they appear constant in the graph(they are fairly linear).

Save mentally the characteristics of this graphs because is the main prerequisite for our selection!!
Now look at the “Average Odds” row (bottom of the page), we have: 
2.95 Average Odd for the Draw,
1.48 Average Odd for the Under2.5
As you might have realized this match is between two passive teams, which tend to defend rather than attack
THIS IS A VALID MATCH FOR OUR SELECTION!!!!
...in fact,as you can see(look at the first row),the final score was 0-0. Let’s take another example




This is also a valid match for our selection: Defense lines above the attack lines and this is valid for both teams,Average Draw Odd is 3.13 and Under2.5 Average Odd is 1.58,the final score of this match was 0-0!
Selection Criteria
So,we need:
1-A graphs with the above characteristics,at least 3 months of stats are required
2-Fairly linear graphs lines,the defence line must be above the attack line for both teams
3-The difference between attack and defence value must be 15% or greater for both teams*
4-The Average Betting Odd for the Draw must be 3.25 or less
5-The Average Betting Odd for the Under2.5 must be 1.9 or less

*The percentages are expressed in decimal format(0.47=47% 0.84=84% etc.)

P L E A S E D O N O T F A L L O U T T H E S E V A L U E S ( E V E N I F M I N I M A L )
These are the optimal values with wich the system has been tested and you have to respect them
We can easily discard non-valid matches from the Home Page:if we see that the Average Betting Odd for the Draw is greater than 3.25 we can avoid to go further
Note: You can change the fixtures date by clicking on the top bar in the home page
Staking
We must divide our stake in two parts: one for Final Score 0-0 and one for the Under 2.5,using the following formulas:
Final Score 0-0=Bankroll/50
Under 2.5=Final Score Bet/(Under 2.5 Odd-1)

For example,If your bankroll is £50 and assuming an Under 2.5 odd of 1.7 you will bet: £50/50=£1 Your Final Score 0-0 Bet
£1/(1.7-1)=£1.4 Your Under 2.5 Bet

The Under 2.5 bet it’s useful just to get our money back in case the match will not finish 0-0

If you lose, do not worry about and go to the next bet,remember that we are betting on the Final Score 0-0 which has an average odd of 8!
Conclusion
This system has been tested for two years and actually is still winning,as you can
see it is a very powerful system,i have made a lot of money with it and i hope that it
will continue to give us a lot of satisfaction. My personal winning streaks record is of
three match...We are talking of three winning in a row by betting at odds
respectively of 7-9-8!!!,But normally you will win within 4-5 matches.

You may not win for several days, but then maybe you will win three in a row in just one day!

You should try this system for at least two weeks to see optimal results:in two
years I have personally experienced losing money for a whole week,if you do not want to risk money just take notes of the outcomes.

If you do not understand something of this guide please post your question on the blog


Low Liability Laying” Following this guide to the letter will put extra money in your pocket of that I have no doubt.

“Low Liability Laying”
Following this guide to the letter will put extra money in your pocket of that I have no doubt.




Introduction
Low Liability Laying is all about Laying horses to lose.
In short, I found a way to make small gains regularly using a short and systematic method. We advise you start small, gather confidence, re-invest gains, and you will soon see what you can achieve from steady re-investment and compounding.

Step 1


TAT THE END OF THE FIRST SET Clearly, especially in best of three set matches, winning the first set is a huge advantage as the winner only needs to win one more set to win the match. But how much of an advantage is it?
AT THE END OF THE FIRST SET

Clearly, especially in best of three set matches, winning the first set is a huge advantage as the winner only needs to win one more set to win the match.

But how much of an advantage is it?

If you did a survey of gamblers and pundits, you probably would get a variety of extreme answers from ‘almost guaranteed to win’ to ‘it’s just one set out of three’. I don’t deal in speculation so I have all the statistics necessary to gauge just how much of an advantage a first set win actually is.


WTA:-

Winning the first set

Win Percentage when won the first set with SP 1.01-1.20 = 96% (1.04 implied odds) Win Percentage when won the first set with SP 1.01-1.50 = 94% (1.06 implied odds) Win Percentage when won the first set with SP 1.01-2.00 = 90% (1.11 implied odds) Win Percentage when won the first set with SP 2.00-2.99 = 77% (1.30 implied odds) Win Percentage when won the first set with SP 3.00-5.99 = 63% (1.59 implied odds) Win Percentage for top 100 players when won the first set (any SP) = 87%

Losing the first set

Win Percentage when lost the first set with SP 1.01-1.20 = 48% (2.08 implied odds) Win Percentage when lost the first set with SP 1.01-1.50 = 39% (2.56 implied odds) Win Percentage when lost the first set with SP 1.01-2.00 = 30% (3.33 implied odds) Win Percentage when lost the first set with SP 2.00-2.99 = 15% (6.67 implied odds) Win Percentage when lost the first set with SP 3.00-5.99 = 11% (9.09 implied odds) Win Percentage for top 100 players when losing the first set (any SP) = 22%

Before I analyse the statistics, the eagle eyed amongst you may have noticed that the win percentage for top 100 players when won the first set is 87% but when losing the first set is 22%, and you are probably wondering why it doesn’t add up to 100%. That’s because sometimes, top 100 players play players outside the top 100…

From these statistics there are several areas that interest me. Using the midpoint of each price range (clearly this is not exact, but it should be pretty reasonable), we can say that a player that starts at 1.11 should have a price of 1.04 if they win the first set – that’s pretty much spot on. However, if that player loses the first set, would they go to 2.08? That’s incredibly unlikely in my opinion. I feel that in the best of three WTA match, they’d still be odds-on after losing the first set. This situation is almost certainly due to the weight of money supporting the favourite when they are losing – it’s a common entry point for many traders and is clearly illustrated in that example.

This can be further considered by the success of pre-match underdogs priced 3.00-5.99 when winning the first set. These players win on average 63%, from a midpoint starting price of 4.50. Would a player starting at 4.50 be 1.59 after winning the first set? That’s fairly unlikely, in my opinion. I feel that they’d probably be a little bigger than this – again lending weight to the argument that backing heavy favourites when losing is poor value due to the market forces keeping the price of the heavy favourite lower than it should be.

Therefore we can assume that backing the favourite in the WTA when a set down, applied as a blanket strategy, is a losing one. Having said that, I’m sure that used selectively it can produce profit.

I also compiled the same statistics for the ATP.

ATP:-

Winning the first set

Win Percentage when won the first set with SP 1.01-1.20 = 99% (1.01 implied odds) Win Percentage when won the first set with SP 1.01-1.50 = 95% (1.05 implied odds) Win Percentage when won the first set with SP 1.01-2.00 = 91% (1.10 implied odds) Win Percentage when won the first set with SP 2.00-2.99 = 74% (1.35 implied odds) Win Percentage when won the first set with SP 3.00-5.99 = 61% (1.64 implied odds) Win Percentage for top 100 players when won the first set (any SP) = 84%

Losing the first set

Win Percentage when lost the first set with SP 1.01-1.20 = 67% (1.49 implied odds) Win Percentage when lost the first set with SP 1.01-1.50 = 44% (2.27 implied odds) Win Percentage when lost the first set with SP 1.01-2.00 = 37% (2.70 implied odds) Win Percentage when lost the first set with SP 2.00-2.99 = 17% (5.88 implied odds) Win Percentage when lost the first set with SP 3.00-5.99 = 9% (11.11 implied odds) Win Percentage for top 100 players when lost the first set (any SP) = 25%

As we can see from comparing the WTA stats with the ATP stats above, favourites clearly enjoy a bigger advantage in the men’s game than they do in the women’s when winning the first set. However, overall we see that the women generally win more matches when a set up, due to the increased win percentages for underdogs. The two underdog price brackets in the ATP had a lower average win percentage than for the WTA – so men’s favourites tend to be able to come back and win in three sets more often than women’s favourites. The statistics on losing the first set back that up – men priced between 1.01 and 1.20 come back on average 67% of the time which is a huge increase on the women’s 48%. Not only that, but the win percentage price 1.01-1.50 was bigger for the men (44% to 39%), and it was too for the price 1.01-2.00 (37% to 30%).

I personally consider that men favourites tend to come back more than men’s because of the bigger gap in fitness, and to some extent mental strength. I truly believe that a great deal of tennis is played in the mind. Some men and women players are very, very weak in the mental strength department and also lack fitness, particularly in the third set. These deficiencies will prevent them from reaching the levels that their ability warrants. If you see a player who is strong or weak mentally or physically, make a note of that. It’s a note that could earn you a lot of money in the future…

Another factor that influences the market price after the first set is the actual first set scoreline. Logically, many people consider that the player that enjoys the bigger advantage in the first set should be so dominant that the second set is a mere formality.

However, that isn’t necessarily the case. We saw in the French Open Quarter Final on June
4th, 2013, a prime example of that.

Serena Williams started her quarter final match with Svetlana Kuznetsova as heavy favourite at 1.07. She dominated Kuznetsova in the first set, winning it 6-1. Only the extremely optimistic Kuznetsova fan would expect Kuznetsova to be able to turn the match around but she almost managed it, taking the second set 6-3 and leading 2-0 in the third set. Kuznetsova actually traded as slight favourite at around 1.80 at that point. Clearly even with extremely heavy favourites winning the first set by a dominant margin, winning the match is far from a formality.


So as usual, several years ago I decided that having an opinion wasn’t enough and decided to investigate the statistics further…
I sampled a large number of mens and womens matches, with any starting price and player rank considered and obtained the following results:-

ATP:-

6-0 first set – win percentage = 92% 6-1 first set – win percentage = 86% 6-2 first set – win percentage = 86% 6-3 first set – win percentage = 86% 6-4 first set – win percentage = 79% 7-5 first set – win percentage = 84% 7-6 first set – win percentage = 76%

WTA:

6-0 first set – win percentage = 97% 6-1 first set – win percentage = 89% 6-2 first set – win percentage = 90% 6-3 first set – win percentage = 81% 6-4 first set – win percentage = 83% 7-5 first set – win percentage = 77% 7-6 first set – win percentage = 79%

From these statistics, we can see that generally the closer the first set score the lower the success rate is for winning the match, with there generally being a drop from the 6-0 to 6-3 scoreline in the ATP to the 6-4 to 7-6 scorelines, and the 6-0 to 6-2 scorelines in the WTA to the 6-4 to 7-6 scorelines.

If we notice an over-reaction in the market after a close set, especially in situations where a player gets broken at *5-6 or loses a tight tiebreak, we can often obtain good value because clearly in those situations the match win percentage for the first set winner will be at the lowest possible figures.

Another area we can look at when the first set is completed is a player’s record when a set down or up. Some players have a very negative mentality when they drop the first set, whereas it inspires others to come back. Some players get complacent when they drop the first set, or lack self belief that they can win. It’s important to know which players fall into the various categories.

The Australian legend Rod Laver had the highest career win percentage a set down, winning an incredible 48.4% of matches from that point. Out of the current players, Rafael Nadal’s

42.1% is the highest, and unsurprisingly he and the other current top 3 players make up the top 5 current players over the career stats, along with Lleyton Hewitt.

However, Hewitt’s inclusion here clearly shows the danger of looking at career stats. His career is clearly on the wane, and you can argue the same for Roger Federer to some extent as well. I prefer to look at the 12 month stats for match situations, personally.

Here’s some 12 month stats (correct at June 2013):-

Good players when a set up:-

Roger Federer 98.08%
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 97.87%

Kei Nishikori 97.44%
Rafael Nadal 97.22%

Alejandro Falla 96.30%
Novak Djokovic 95.45%

Juan Martin Del Potro 93.02%
David Ferrer 92.86%

Dimitry Tursunov 92.86%
Fabio Fognini 92.59%

Tommy Robredo 91.43%
Leonardo Mayer 91.30%

Jerzy Janowicz 90.70%
Tomas Berdych 90.20%

Marcel Granollers 90.00%

Bad players when a set up:-

Carlos Berlocq 70.83%
Go Soeda 71.43%

Julien Benneteau 74.19%
Fernando Verdasco 75.00%

Martin Klizan 75.00%
Gilles Muller 76.00%
Jurgen Melzer 76.19%

Robby Ginepri 76.47%
Lukasz Kubot 76.92%

Ivan Dodig 77.50%
Edouard Roger-Vasselin 77.78%

Frederico Gil 77.78%
Steve Darcis 78.12%

Radek Stepanek 78.26%

Denis Istomin 78.57%

From these stats we can see which players thrive when a set up and which have a lot more difficulty converting a set advantage to a match win. Whilst it’s worth noting that many of those ATP players with good records a set up are top players, it’s not exclusively the case.

Clearly the list of players above who have bad records a set up will give you an idea of who it could be viable to lay when a set up.


What is also useful is to see which players do well when a set down, and which players tend to wave the white flag in those situations. Again, these are 12 month stats correct at June 2013.

Good players a set down:-

Rafael Nadal 70.00%
Novak Djokovic 61.90%

Andy Murray 55.56%
David Ferrer 50.00%

Ernests Gulbis 42.31%
Stanislas Wawrinka 40.91%

Richard Gasquet 39.13%
Jerzy Janowicz 38.46%

Juan Martin Del Potro 38.10%
Tomas Berdych 36.36%

Sam Querrey 35.71%
Daniel Brands 35.71%

Thomaz Bellucci 34.62%

Note: Roger Federer won only 31.58% of matches where he dropped the first set in the last 12 months. You may well wonder why I say ‘only’ when this is still above ATP average. However, it’s important to realise that his starting price will almost always be extremely low

– which cannot be said for the average player. Furthermore, in his career he has won 41.35% of matches where he lost the first set, so the 12 month figures signal a significant decline in his fortunes when in this situation.

Bad players a set down (12 month stats at June 2013):-

Alejandro Falla 3.57%
Fernando Verdasco 5.26%

Ivo Karlovic 5.56%
Bjorn Phau 6.67%

Michael Llodra 6.67%
Santiago Giraldo 8.70%

Jesse Levine 9.52%

Tobias Kamke 9.68%
Juan Monaco 10.00%

Albert Ramos 11.54%
Grigor Dimitrov 12.00%

Ivan Dodig 12.50%
Ryan Harrison 12.50%

Flavio Cipolla 12.90%
Radek Stepanek 13.33%

Robin Haase 13.33%
Jan Hajek 13.64%

Go Soeda 13.79%
Lukas Lacko 13.79%
Philipp Petzschner 14.29%

Roberto Bautista-Agut 15.00%
Adrian Ungur 15.38%

Xavier Malisse 16.00%
Nikolay Davydenko 16.00%

Pablo Andujar 16.13%

Whilst it’s definitely fair to say that most of the above players that perform badly when a set down are at the lower end of the ATP tour, there are some notable higher level players in this sample – the likes of Fernando Verdasco, Juan Monaco, Grigor Dimitrov, Radek Stepanek and Nikolay Davydenko are all much more illustrious names than most on the list. It would be wise to be cautious about backing these players when losing.

Naturally, I also performed the same research for the WTA, and here’s the 12 month stats
(also correct at June 2013):-

Good players when a set up:-

Greta Arn 100.00%
Sofia Arvidsson 100.00%

Serena Williams 98.53%
Victoria Azarenka 98.15%

Urzsula Radwanska 97.22%
Maria Sharapova 96.43%

Agniezska Radwanska 95.56%
Venus Williams 95.45%
Maria Kirilenko 95.00%

Ayumi Morita 93.10%
Elena Vesnina 92.59%

Ana Ivanovic 92.31%
Anastasia Rodionova 92.31%

Eugenie Bouchard 92.31%
Melanie Oudin 92.31%

Polona Hercog 92.31%

Jamie Hampton 92.00%

Bad players when a set up:-

Jarmila Gajdosova 50.00% (small sample of 10 matches)
Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez 58.33%

Anabel Medina Garrigues 65.00%
Olga Govortsova 65.22%

Yaroslava Shvedova 65.38%
Mathilde Johansson 66.67%

Ksenia Pervak 68.75%
Tsvetana Pironkova 68.75%

Francesca Schiavone 70.83%
Arantxa Rus 71.43%

Shahar Peer 73.68%
Misaki Doi 74.19%

Sabine Lisicki 75.00%
Vania King 76.19%

Andrea Petkovic 76.47%
Vera Dushevina 77.42%

Julia Goerges 78.12%
Heather Watson 78.26%

Lourdes Dominguez Lino 78.57%
Mandy Minella 79.17%

Dominika Cibulkova 79.31%
Jelena Jankovic 79.49%

As with the ATP, many of the players with a good record a set up are top 20 players.

However, it’s worth noting that Arn, Arvidsson, Bouchard, Morita, Oudin, Rodionova and Hercog are much lower ranked and I’d be dubious about currently opposing them when they take the first set.

Urszula Radwanska is an interesting case. She has a superb record when a set up, but is a highly inconsistent player generally, with the ability to test higher ranked players, but equally to lose in two comfortable sets to much lower ranked opposition. It would appear from stats, and also when I’ve seen her play, that she is a very confidence orientated player.

Some of the women’s records when a set up are horrific. Gamblers in particular speculate about some women’s players mental strength – the phrase ‘mental midget’ is often used, and clearly these statistics provide some evidence of that.

It’s very interesting to see that Carlos Berlocq was the worst ATP performer when a set up with a 70.83% winrate – however, that would have put him just equal eighth on the WTA list. Considering that the market usually prices women’s favourites as a shorter price (correctly) than the equivalent priced men’s favourites when a set up, opposing the names above with a bad record when a favourite should provide a positive expectation over the long term. Interestingly there were many high profile players in the list of poorly performing players when a set up that often start as a strong favourite – Schiavone (particularly on clay), Lisicki, Petkovic, Goerges, Cibulkova and Jankovic all regularly start odds on, and often short odds on. Opposing these players when a set up should be extremely lucrative.

Good players when a set down:-

Serena Williams 71.43%
Kirsten Flipkens 50.00%
Victoria Azarenka 45.45%

Lauren Davis 40.00%
Maria Sharapova 38.46%

Petra Kvitova 37.04%
Monica Puig 35.71%

Stefanie Voegele 35.29%
Vania King 34.78%

Svetlana Kuznetsova 33.33%
Venus Williams 33.33%

Lourdes Dominguez Lino 32.14%
Nadia Petrova 31.58%

Polona Hercog 31.25%

Bad players when a set down:-

Arantxa Rus 0.00%
Pauline Parmentier 4.00%

Coco Vandeweghe 5.26%
Greta Arn 5.56%

Sofia Arvidsson 7.69%
Jarmila Gajdosova 8.33%

Varvara Lepchenko 8.70%
Anastasia Rodionova 9.09%

Kristina Mladenovic 9.09%
Yaroslava Shvedova 9.09%

Alberta Brianti 9.52%
Shahar Peer 9.52%

Andrea Petkovic 10.00%
Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez 10.00%

Lucie Hradecka 10.53%
Marina Erakovic 11.11%

Tsvetana Pironkova 12.50%
Christina McHale 13.04%
Julia Goerges 13.04%

Kimiko Date Krumm 13.04%
Su-Wei Hsieh 13.64%

Laura Pous-Tio 14.29%
Mona Barthel 14.29%

Sara Errani 14.29%

Lucie Safarova 14.81%
Misaki Doi 14.81%

Yanina Wickmayer 14.81%
Marion Bartoli 15.00%

Daniela Hantuchova 15.15%
Madison Keys 15.79%

Bethanie Mattek-Sands 15.79%
Sam Stosur 16.00%

Considering the average for winning the match when a set down in the WTA is 22%, some of these figures are as horrific as the figures regarding win percentage when a set up. There would have to be huge value offered to want to back a player on this list when a set down. Again, there are several top players on the list – Goerges, Barthel, Errani, Safarova, Wickmayer, Hantuchova, Stosur all have a decent reputation and in some cases their name will guarantee a short price in the market, even when losing. If they start as heavy favourite, which they often do, and their price is around evens or a little bigger when a set down, it’s hard to justify backing them on the basis of these statistics.

The final thing we need to consider at the end of the first set is our staking. If, for some reason, we decide to back the winner of the first set, this is slightly less of a concern because there will be a point during the second set or third set where we can at least get some of our stake back. However, if we lay the winner of the first set, and then they take the lead in the second set, or get close to winning it, we have a problem because their price will be very short – hence leading to a large percentage loss of our stake. This is less of a problem if we have laid the winner of the first set at a very low price already, as our risk is much smaller compared to our reward. However, if a heavy underdog wins the first set, and we decide to lay them, we have a bigger problem.

For example – a heavy favourite starting between 1.20 and 1.25 loses the first set. Their price will, at that point, generally be around the 2.00 mark, give or take a few ticks either way. If you back them at this price, and the second set goes on serve, with no breaks, to a scoreline like 4-4, and the favourite gets broken, you are in severe danger of losing almost all your stake if you trade out when the underdog is serving for the match at *5-4. Whilst having a high level of risk isn’t necessarily a problem to experienced traders or those with a high risk tolerance, it’s vital that all traders, especially novices, are aware of the potential implications. As I mentioned previously – favourites that lose the first set do not always come back! This is something that in-play gamblers definitely need to bear in mind if they decide to take a longer term position at the end of the first set.
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During this article I will show you how to “lay” bet and be very successful at it. I used to use the “lay against 0-0 draw system” but found I was always on edge for that vital goal to be scored and it became ever more unreliable due to the defensive mindedness of the typical modern manager.
Introduction



Welcome to this very successful betting strategy. And congratulations on taking the decision to purchase this one. You can now start to earn from the bookie rather than give him all of your hard earned cash.


I will keep this intro as short as possible as I’m sure you just want to get down to the earning part.


The beauty of this system is that it requires the minimum amount of research for each match, about 30 seconds to be precise. You can bet on any game of football at any time, in any league or cup competition in any country. It works on any game of football so you can make money everyday of the year. Even Christmas day if you fancy it.
If you’re an early bird you could fit in ten to fifteen games per day easily. Depending on how seriously you want to take it.
I stumbled across this system by sheer accident/luck and it hasn't lost me money overall in the five years I've been using it. Yes, I have lost on the very rare occasion but I earn a lot more than I lose. This system is 97% successful. And now you could say that this is my main source of income so yes, it is my living. This proves how reliable it is.
During this article I will show you how to “lay” bet and be very successful at it. I used to use the “lay against 0-0 draw system” but found I was always on edge for that vital goal to be scored and it became ever more unreliable due to the defensive mindedness of the typical modern manager.
About five years ago while laying against a 0-0 I thought “two teams never have the same result twice in a row”. So I started to paper bet (theory bet) against teams having the same result as their last fixture. So for example I would take Manchester Utd Vs Chelsea as a more recent game. Their last fixture on 18/04/2015 ended Chelsea 1 Manchester Utd 0. Now I would go and lay against their next fixture (28/12/2015) ending in 1-0 to Chelsea. The result was Manchester Utd 0 Chelsea 0 so this bet was another winner.
As long as the game never ended 1-0 to Chelsea you win regardless of how the match ended.
It’s as simple as that.
If you still need convincing, either have a look at any results in any league around the globe and you will see that it’s very rare for two teams to have the same result twice in a row. If you still need convincing after that then why not try to paper bet (theory bet) the system yourself for a month and see what your bank roll would be at the end of that month. Start with £100 and see the outcome. That way you risk no money and you’ll see that this system is a very good earner.


The system


Right, now let’s get down to the nitty gritty. First of all you will need some kind of internet access. I also recommend you have a smart phone or tablet of some kind.


Now you need to download the “flash scores” app. It looks something like this.



Once you’ve downloaded “Flash scores” you then need to have some kind of betting exchange account. I prefer to use Betfair Exchange. They do take 5% of any winnings as commission but their odds are much better than other exchange sites so you will be better off in the long run. You must have a betting exchange site otherwise you will not be able to “lay” bets. Just for the record I am in no way affiliated to Betfair. The betfair exchange app looks something like this.



Now create your account with them.


Once you have completed these two easy steps we can get started.


Click on your Flash scores app and let’s see what games are on today. You can start with a morning/early afternoon game but literally any game will do.
Now click on that game you have picked out.


I’ve picked Eibar Vs Gijon from the Spanish Primera Division.




Now you’ll see that “summary” is highlighted.
We need to look to the right a bit until you see the “H2H” tab. Click on ’H2H’.
You will now see their results of their previous 6 overall games for each club.




IMPORTANT: Although on other systems the results of the teams overall previous 6 results will be useful, however we won’t be needing it so ignore their overall results against other teams. Now scroll down to the two teams last 6 head to head matches. (Remember we need their most recent previous result)


As you can see the last time my two teams met it ended 0-1 to Gijon.



Now make a note of the score and click on your betfair exchange app, once opened click on the football tab (top left),




then click on “today” and find your game.




Click on the selected game and then click on the “Correct score” tab at the top.




In my case I will now find 0-1 and lay against it. Your looking for the red column on the right. The blue column is to “back” a score and we’re “laying” so you don‘t want the blue column.






For this example I will be laying £5. In my case to “lay” against a 0-1 I will be risking £60.00 just to win £5. Sounds risky but the risk is very small. Believe me, the stakes are high but the risk is so small I don’t even take the stakes into consideration. So now click on your red tab to “lay” your bet.


I’m going to “lay” £5 which as mentioned gives me a £60 liability. Once you have your amount in place click on the yellow “place bet” tab and it will then tell you if your bet is matched.





If you adjust your odds tab up or down you probably wont get your bet matched so it’s best to leave that alone, you can see it below on the left in grey circled in green. It says 13 so let‘s leave it like that. You only need to enter your bet amount and place bet.





Now go back to your flash scores and find the game again. As you can see below there is a star shape. Click on that star to highlight it yellow (see pic below).




This will now be in your (my games tab) and will notify you whenever someone scores or you can just checkout the stats etc by clicking on the game while it’s in play.
Now just sit back and wait.


In my case the bet was won on the 55th minute when Eibar scored.



Bearing in mind I layed against the 0-1 to Gijon there is now no possible way the result can be 0-1 to Gijon so my bet is now won regardless of any other scoring or result of the game so on to the next bet I go.


For the record the game ended 2- 0 to Eibar but that doesn’t matter to me any longer. Now I just wait for the game to end to collect my winnings. Don’t ever be tempted to cash out once you have won your bet. You will never receive the full amount even though you have already won. Always let the game run it’s course. Unless you are worried about losing your bet then I’ll leave that to your own discretion but patience is key here and most of all don’t panic.
In Summary


IMPORTANT: When you research your games on flash scores, if you do happen to see a game that’s had two results the same in a row then avoid it. The chances are they won’t be the same for a third time but it’s best to not take that risk.


Patience is absolute key when using this system. If a game is 1 -0 on the 50 th minute and you have a lay on the 1-0 then the chances are there will be another goal. Remember, it is very rare for two results to be the same between two teams in a row.


If you are worried about the size of the liabilities when laying then I would suggest you do a paper bet for a month as mentioned at the start. That way you will see the size of a the possible earnings from this system.


If you do somehow lose NEVER!! Chase your loses. NEVER!! Panic bet,


NEVER!! Bet more than you can afford, But most of all
NEVER!! Get angry.


This will only help you lose even more money. My advice would be to take a few deep breaths, go for a walk and calm down then start again.


I always wait until I win 10 games then withdraw my winnings but leave my original bank roll in there.


Talking of bank rolls, I started with £100 but you could start with as little as £25 by laying £2 per game.


Always gamble responsibly. Remember this is just a system. It has done very well for me but nothing is guaranteed especially if your in the middle of a dry run.


I wish you the very best of luck and thanks again for purchasing my system. I hope it makes you as wealthy as I have become.

For Educational purposes Only
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You'll need to firstly open Betfair Account and add funds, ideally £110 to take £50+ per day or else £55 will return around £25+ per day. You can start with less but this means your profit per day will be less also. If you wish, you is wait until half time and the game being 0 - 0 would then lay the Correct Score at half time, meaning their liabilities is much less, meaning to profit £10 at half time, you'd only have to lay around odds off 3 on Betfair,
Please read carefully, any queries please Post on the Forum.
You'll need to firstly open Betfair Account and add funds, ideally £110 to take £50+ per day or else £55 will return around £25+ per day.
You can start with less but this means your profit per day will be less also.
If you wish, you is wait until half time and the game being 0 - 0 would then lay the Correct Score at half time, meaning their liabilities is much less, meaning to profit £10 at half time, you'd only have to lay around odds off 3 on Betfair,
The System doesn't require much work, I spend 20 minutes each morning picking my matches for that day.
I personally wait till half time in the leagues and then look at teams that are 0–0 at half time, then lay the Correct Score for £11, meaning my liabilities is only £30.
Don’t be frustrated that you’re only winning £10 per trade, because over the course of month you’d be expected to earn £1500+ per month.


The Rules


Next it’s important to view the Head-To-Head of both Wigan & Blackpool will use www.flashscores.co.uk. for this there is a number of websites that can show this type of information, we Open Flash Scores then select Scheduled tab,


Next, you’ll see the Wigan game kick off at 19:15 as stated on the Betfair
website, we will select the game and now view its Head-To-Head Statistics
Simply select the Wigan game, then H2H Tab, Then Wigan –
Home tab, this will display the last 5 games Wigan had at home, it’s important to look at the goals scored, in this case Wigan have scored 10 goals in their last 5 Home games, we are looking for 6+ goals scored in last 5 games at home.
Next, we select the Blackpool – Away tab and see if Blackpool are scoring away from home, in this case they have scored 5 away goals in their last 5 games, which is great as we are looking for 4+ goals.


Finally we will look at H2H stats and in the last 5 games, in all 5 occasions there has been goals, previous game on 28th February 2015 finished 1:3 (Wigan)


Wigan Home
111111111111111111111112222222.png
Blackpool Away
2222222222222222111111.png


Head-To-Head Matches, you’ll see appear at the bottom of each screenshot, just to recap the rules we require before we decide on a potential betting opportunity...


a) Home Team Must Have 6+ Goals in their LAST 5 GAMES at HOME


b) Away Team Must Have 4+ Goals in their LAST 5 GAMES AWAY


c) Head-To-Head Must Always Show Goals Between Both Sides (NO 0-0 DRAW)


Quick Tip – I also tend to look and see if while playing at home, has there been goals conceded against them, in their last 5 games, meaning defence could be poor and allow for more goals.


Next, visit the Betfair Exchange website, select Football > Today > Wigan v Blackpool, then navigate to Correct Score market, displayed along the top.
What we aim to do in here is to LAY the 0-0 Correct Score, you’ll see in Lay in RED and a number displayed in this case 17


11111111111111111111111.png


Our LAY odds must be 11 or less for us to profit £10 per game, normally this is the case odds will be around 11 or less, but on this occasion they aren’t. Though, what we can do is wait until the match is in play at 19:15 and keep checking on the odds until they are 11 or less, then place the bet. Usually 15 minutes after kick-off if the result remains at 0-0 the odds will be around 9-11 which means we can then place our bet.
You can also, set the odds to 11 yourself, and when the game is In Play then the bet will  be struck once the odds reach 11. For example…


22222222222222222222222.png


On the left I have set the odds to be 11 and on the right I am Staking how much profit I want to make so £11, which means my Liability is £110, which is what I have as my Betfair Balance. So basically, I am putting up £110 to win £11 pounds. As the game progresses the odds off a 0-0 will decrease, meaning laying 0 – 0 correct score at half time, you put up for example £110 will win you £25.
This we are not intended as our aim is to make £11 per game, and have roughly 5 games per day, meaning £50+ per day. If you’ wait to half time, you are risking the chance that a goal is scored in first half meaning, you haven’t got on in time.


a) Home Team Must Have 6+ Goals in their LAST 5 GAMES at HOME


b) Away Team Must Have 4+ Goals in their LAST 5 GAMES AWAY


c) Head-To-Head Must Always Show Goals Between Both Sides


(NO 0-0 DRAW)


Also, only trade on the Correct Score market, and odds off 11 and below, always remember that you are Laying 0 – 0 Correct Score Line.

To Conclude, this is an excellent system and real opportunity to make additional income from only 20 minutes work each month, I tend to do my research in the morning and make a note of which matches I tend to trade that day, you may decide to research 20 minutes in the evening before which is totally 100%, it is just important to keep eye on the Correct Score odds as sometimes they can be 17 and too high for us to trade. We need make sure they are 11 and below, and like in the example provided, we waited 10 minutes in play and secured the 11 odds.
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This is a Collection of Trading systems ENJOY
When assessing matches for this strategy I check two markets first before looking at CS.
First, I'm looking for match odds of no lower than 1.8 for the favourite, and I'm also looking at U2.5 being around 1.9 - 2.1. If these criteria are met you will find more times than not that 1-1 is trading at between 7 and 8.5 and the other two at about 11-13. I would then usually back 1-1 for about 1.5 the amount I'm backing the other two for 
- so £3 1-1 £2 the others, £5 1-1, £3 the others or thereabouts. If the game is still 0-0 after half an hour I normally look to put a small amount on 2-2 at 25-30.


What can go wrong?


When assessing any Correct Score trades I think it's sensible to look at what might go wrong and by so doing to assess your 'danger scores'. We can then work out how to deal with them. The first, and most distressing, danger is the dreaded 0-0! The easiest way I've found to alleviate this score is by backing and laying the same amount pre-match trying to make 1 or 2 ticks. By trading pre-match your stake itself is safe, the only danger is that the price moves against you rather than for you. My experience shows that if you back 0-0 with about 30 to 45 minutes to go you will usually get at least one tick movement. There are no guarantees - but often I can get between £35 and £50 'free' sitting on 0-0. In-play you can either just leave your money sitting on 0-0 or lay some of it off as the price of 0-0 drops. There are only really two other main dangers; first that no goal is scored until very late in the game and the 1-1 price doesn't come in enough to lay it off profitably, the second that two goals come very early in the game resulting, again, in insufficient price movements. An absolute goalfest is always a possibility, if you are nervous about that why not look at taking some cover in the U/O goal markets?


In-play trading


There are a number of ways this strategy can be traded in-play. In an ideal world the game would play out thus: dogs score first, bringing the 1-1 in. Favourites equalise at about 60 minutes - enabling a green of 1-1 to cover all stakes and give a profit on all scores. Then you can either green up across the board, or wait for a 1-2 or 2-1. At this stage you are effectively laying the draw with absolutely no downside! If you'd had the foresight to back 2-2 as well as the other scores you'd be laughing all the way to the bank if 2-1 or 1-2 comes before  the 80th minute! That's the ideal - and they happen surprisingly often.
There are danger points to consider and you need to have a plan...
Two quick goals bringing the score to 0-2 or 2-0 can be tricky as two thirds of your trade is gone in a flash. There's little you can do here - except to hedge your remaining bet and walk away - or you could stand firm if you're prepared for the fact that 3-0 or 0-3 (or staying the same until the end) will lose your entire stake. Another precaution might be to take a small bet on the Next Goal market - or if those goals are early in the game you could lay O2.5 goals at a very low price to guard against the game staying the same.
The game is 0-0 at half time...and you have no 0-0 cover as discussed above.
Two choices really - hedge for a small loss or stand firm and hope for goals second half.
You could consider backing 0-0 1-0 0-1 maybe to cover your stakes... use the 'what-if' on BF to see how to stake - but it will eat a lot of your potential profit!
The game is 0-0 at 80 mins and you have no 0-0 cover - consider hedging for a larger loss, and maybe lay 0-0 for the red amount - it obviously increases your exposure but if the game is won 1-0 or 0-1 puts you in a scratch position.There are other banana skins - but the beauty of this trade, when it works, is that the return is generally pretty good.


SUMMARY


·Evenly matched games - home side no lower than 1.8 U2.5 around evens
·Set an amount of money / % of bank you are prepared to LOSE -
work the rest of your plan out with that figure in mind.
·Try to get some free money on 0-0 pre-match
·Stakes should be around a straight dutch on 1-1 1-2 2-1
·0-0 25 - 30 mins put a small amount on 2-2
·If a goal is scored I would usually try to lay half my total stakes on the 1-1 scoreline


UNLESS the dog scores against the run of play ·1-1 is where the play-dirt starts. Green completely on 1-1 - will probably give an overall green on all scores.


Then you can either let the other 2/3 ride for a while, or hedge all bets and go down the pub / move on to the next game!
·0-0 HT - a) hedge for small loss or b) stand firm or c) cover 0-0 1-0 0-1
·0-0 80 mins hedge for larger loss (unless 0-0 1-0 and 0-1 covered) and maybe lay 0-0 to cover that loss..
The most important thing to remember is this:
If a trade goes against you - DO SOMETHING POSITIVE to reduce / minimise your liabilities and losses.


Don't sit there like a rabbit in the headlights - think outside the box - are there any other markets that might come to your rescue?


Staking:


Back 1-1 for about 1.5 the amount I'm backing the other two for - so £3 1-1 £2 the others, £5 1-1, £3 the others or thereabouts. If the game is still 0-0 after half an hour I normally look to put a small amount on 2-2 at 25-30.
BACK 2-1 scoreline, preferably to home side. Insurance optional. ( don't bother unless sticking £50 on 2-1 then put £10 on 0-0)
For £20 or £30 just hedge at HT if 0-0 for loss of half initial stake
If goals go in either lay fav in NG market, BACK under 1.5 or just LAY 2-1 for green
Alternative if price not available before KO .Back in play at 11s or more to home fave for £25, £5 on 2-2
optional £5 on 0-0
IF game is 0-0 at 60-65 mins apply the SHS and only the game ending 0-0 will damage you.
Selection Criteria: Match Odds between 1.60 to 2.10; 2-1 minimum odds of 10s
Staking: £50 and above take insurance of £10 on 0-0; Staking less than above exit trade for a loss at HT if 0-0





Lay the draw


You LAY the draw and BACK at a higher price after a goal is scored.
Beware that if the dog scores first the price may not move at all in your favour.
It is essential in this trade to have a predetermined exit point either for taking a profit or accepting loss.
It is an extremely good strategy to practice the key element in trading:
Namely, taking the profit when the opportunity presents itself AND accepting a loss if the trade is not going in your favour.

Selection criteria:

With an average odds of 3.6 on the draw in most games, your liabilities are high.
Choose match selection carefully!
Staking: Personal choice
LAY DRAW @ 3.6 £50
After first goal
BACK @ 5.4 £33....
Hedged profit = £17
0-0 after 65mins
BACK DRAW @ 2.0
£80
Hedged loss = £30



Lazy


The ‘Lazy’ is probably the closest thing we’ve got to a ‘set and go’ strategy for trading strong favourites.
It involves backing certain scores in the Correct Score market and then laying an odds on favourite in the Match Odds market. Returns are relatively low, but in return, it is usually a trade requiring very little tweaking in play.

Selection criteria:

The only selection criterion is an odds on favourite, so much the better if that is also the home side. The more heavily odds on they are the better as well!
This strategy can also be employed in-play when the favourite has taken the lead by 1 goal or more. It is safer to to use in the 2nd half as you will need less scorelines to cover in the CS market
Method:
Assuming favourites are the home team, dutch back 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1 in Correct Score. Then lay the favourites in Match Odds for your total stake. Easy! If the match finishes with one of those scorelines you make a small green, if the underdog wins or the game is drawn it is a scratch trade.
DANGERS
The only dangers to this trade are the 3-2 and Any Unquoted scorelines – so you might need to cover these in play by either backing them or by laying u3.5 or u4.5 goals.
The Lion Lazy:
A variation of the Lazy Lamb for those whose risk / reward threshold allows a slightly riskier trade.  A favourite trading at 1.6 or less should really be expected to a) win the game and b) score at least two goals. That is a bold statement, but is the premise for this variation.

Selection criteria:

As above, but ideally favourite 1.6 or lower.
METHOD:
Again assuming home team are favourites back 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1 in Correct Score. This can either be dutched, or you might decide to weight it n favour of 3-0 or 3-1 if you are confident about goals coming. Lay favourites in Match Odds for half the Correct Score stake (optional – alternative for an even riskier trade is to lay favourites at 1-0!)
DANGERS
1-0 is now added to the problem scores list, but you are also still exposed to 3-2 and AU, and to the dog scoring first. The latter is a bigger problem, of course, if you have elected not to lay the favourite for 50% of CS stakes.


LTD


Variables are enormous given we are trading 3 matches. The aim is to at least cover your Multiples stake by the end of the first match.


This can be done by laying the draw at less than odds of 2.0
So if your total stake is £20 then LTD for that amount. Should the first game not end in a draw then you have won the LTD lay. You still have two more games to play so you are left with a possible double but you have already covered your stake If the first game does end in a draw then you move to the second game
which now gives you one possible double
At some point in-play you need to LTD - around HT is ideal. The draw odds will be @ 2.60
which is enough to put you in profit on the whole multiple trade.
Match result is NOT a draw - you win your LTD
Match is a draw - you have now lost the LTDs on both games so far but you have won one double and now enter the third game with a further two possible doubles and a treble.
Moving on to the third game you can LTD before KO



A nice system


Back on fave at 2.30 minimum (home fave unless Bet365 stats are very strong in favour of away fave). Back on Overs at 2.60 min
Some cover on low scores, 0-1, 1-1, 1-2 to dog, (0-0 too if more comfortable).
Stakes
Same stakes for Match Odds and Overs, say £20 for example. Cover on Correct Score to dog should be £10-£14 in total, say £3 on 0-1, £5 on 1-1, £3 on 1-2, £3 on 0-0 (or 2-2).
CS cover should be 40-50% cover on red on the other 2 markets.
Many of these games will occur 15-20 mins In-play and Bet365 In-play stats can be used to get a feel for a game and to gauge Shots on Target, Corners etc.
Ideal outcome: Home win to fave and a score of 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 etc. 1-2 would also profit in 2 of the 3 markets.
Worst outcome: 0-2 to away dog late on, (would advise covering it at some point if game is 0-1 around 70 mins.) 0-0 if no cover. These are your ONLY 2 big dangers.





Lay system


If Team A is one goal ahead and in your estimation an equaliser is probable you LAY Team A AND you LAY the current score.
If possible the CS lay should cover the M/O lay. It is, therefore, likely to be a trade you do in the second half. If Team B score both lays come in, and you can either green the M/O lay or take the red out and let it run.
If Team A is two goals ahead, do the same thing, the key difference this time is that it is more likely that you'll feel comfortable matching the liability on M/O with your CS lay as the numbers involved will be that much more acceptable. The action after a goal is as above.


In both cases a goal to Team A leaves a scratch or small loss, whereas a goal to Team B will result in some kind of profit with the opportunity of a big profit.
Staking


You obviously need a plan in the event of no goals! Stake within your comfort zone and take the odd 'double whammy' on the chin; you might favour a time or 'red' limited trade.


Two examples


1) Team A is 2-0 up. LAY leading team for £100 at 1.02 and LAY 2-0 for £20 at 1.64. Total exposure: £14.80. Fav scored to make it 3-0.
So £20 win minus £2 M/O lay. Profit = £18


2) Team A is 1-0 up. LAY leading team @ 1.18 for £50  and LAY 1-0 at 7.2 for £20 ... total exposure: £133 (this was a bit sticky, and not for the faint of heart )
You may want to have a maximum odds range with which you (& your bank) feels comfortable. Usually, 1-0 around 55-60mins will be @ 4.0 or less
Team B equalise: You can either
  • Take out the red in Match odds & let trade run and hope it stays 1-1 or dog score again
  • Green up the Match Odds by backing fav or lay the draw
Choose games where you think there will be more goals. This is essentially a 2nd half trade and stats consistently show us that more goals are scored in 2nd half of games across all leagues.
Remember: Place your Correct Score Lay FIRST followed by the Match Odds lay!




LAYING DRAW + LAY UNDER 1.5 + LAY UNDER2.5


* NOTE: you can equally apply the same principle if the score is 1-1 around the 65-70min mark
LAY THE DRAW + LAY UNDER3.5 + LAY UNDER4.5
When the score is 0-0 around 60mins
We are looking for at least one goal in  2nd half goal to achieve a profit.
1-0: You win on the LTD but lose on the other two lays
1-1 You win on the Under1.5 LAY but lose on the other two markets (although depending on timing you can reduce red or hedge for green on Under2.5 )
2-0 /0-2: You win on LTD and Under1.5 LAY but lose on Under2.5 LAY (although depending on timing you can reduce red or hedge for green on Under2.5 )
2-1/1-2: Jackpot as you win on all 3 markets
Final score 0-0 is a 100% loss
Staking:
LAY THE DRAW @ 2.0 £20
LAY UNDER1.5 @ 1.25 £40
LAY UNDER2.5 @ 1.06 £50
What if No goal:
You lose 100% of your stake..........in the above staking suggestion that equals £33
What if one goal
You win £20 on the LTD lay
You lose £10 on Under1.5 LAY
You lose £3 on Under2.5 LAY
What if two goals
You win £20 on the LTD lay - If score is 2-0 or 0-2 OR You lose £20 if 1-1
You win £40 on Under1.5 LAY
You lose £3 on Under2.5 LAY
What if three or more goals
You win £20 on the LTD lay
You win £40 on Under1.5 LAY
You win £50 on Under2.5 LAY
* 2-2 final score and you lose £20 on LTD but win on the other two markets


LAY heavy  fav in the HALF TIME


LAY heavy  fav in the HALF TIME MATCH ODDS market pre match and exit the trade when the BACK odds are higher, enabling you to green up.
The rate at which the odds move in this market is greater than seen in the regular MO market.
Bigger profits - especially if the dog scores first - but less time to recover should the trade go against you. Look to exit trade after 15/20 mins
Selection criteria:
Favourites should be less than 2.0 in the HALF TIME market.
More than this then your liabilities could be quite severe
Staking: Personal choice
Example: when still 0-0 after 15/20 mins
LAY FAV @ 1.75 £100
BACK @ 2.0 £87.50
25 tick profit = £12.50
Example: 0-1 to the dog
a) Let the trade run and hope the fav does not equalise or even score 2 or more in the time left remaining. Very risky...and greedy!
b) BACK the fav to leave equal green on all 3 outcomes - Home/Away/Draw. The easiest of the 3 options
c) BACK 1-1 & 2-1. A little more complicated as it depends on the prices currently available

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1 comment:

  1. Hi, I purchased access to this page and it is a good collection of systems, could you share the horse system called "little acorns" it seems to be on your horse section but it leads to an unexisting page

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete