Horse Racing Laying System

Introduction

Between the 18 June ‘14 and 28 July ‘14 I conducted a laying experiment on Betdaq. With a starting bank of EUR 100, I managed to earn a profit of EUR 464.

Over this period, I placed 245 lay bets on horse races in the UK, Ireland and the US.

Within this time frame, I did not bet everyday - only 25 of these days, which equated to about EUR 19 profit per day, for no more than a few minutes work.

My aim was to avoid a ‘Black Swan’ event by putting in place a strict criteria, and stick to this. A Black Swan in terms of risk management is where an event occurs which renders all existing assumptions flawed - effectively - I did not want to lose my bank!

I did not use any software, nor did I conduct any in-depth research of the laying.

Bets were placed on my iPhone, and required no time commitment from me.

In my book ‘Dominate The Field’, I described the concept of ‘Nosebleed Prices’, where extreme outsiders are identified as ideal lay bets. These prices are so high, very few feel comfortable or have to desire to lay at these price. This area is not for everyone, given prices can range from about 30.0 right up to 200.0+

However, this range can provide a very consistent income for those willing to lay at these prices. For my experiment, I laid Nosebleed Prices using strict criteria and I only laid before the race went in play.

Betdaq might prove a better option for Nosebleed Prices for those with lower banks or if you are laying huge odds. The EUR 0.50 minimum betting stake means your betting bank needs to be only ¼ the size of the bank you need for Betfair (the Betfair minimum betting stake is EUR 2.00).

Criteria

The exact criteria I used is as follows:

1. Select any schedule of UK, Irish or US races

2. Determine how many runners are in each race to identify a qualifying lay bet. There must be at least 4 runners in a race.

1. If 4 to 5 runners, ensure the two favourites are priced below 3.5, the 3rd favourite is priced below 10.0 and the outsider is priced at 30.0+. Lay the outsider.

2. If 6 to 8 runners, ensure the favourite is priced below 2.20, the 2nd and 3rd favourite are priced below 4.8 and the outsider is priced at 40.0+

3. If 9 to 11 runners, ensure the favourite is priced below 3.0, the 2nd and 3rd favourites are priced below 5.8, 2 other runners are priced below 10.0 and the outsider is priced at 60.0+. If there is more than 1 horse priced at 60.0+, feel free to lay both.

Another option - if the favourite is not priced below 3.0, but if there are 4 horses priced below 6.0, and the outsider is priced 60.0+, this is also a qualifying lay.

d) If 12+ runners, ensure the favourite is priced below 3.0, the 2nd and 3rd favourites are priced below 7.0, 2 other runners are priced below 10.0 and the outsider is priced at 80.0+. If there is more than 1 horse priced at 80.0+, feel free to lay both.

Like 2(c), the option (where there are 4 horses priced below 6.0) can also be used, provided the outsider is priced at 80.0+

e) Over 100.0+ - If any race of any size has an outsider with a price of 100.0+, this is also a qualifying bet.

3. Place a lay bet, so your entire bank is exposed. When I did this, as soon as the lay bet settled, and I won, I moved onto the next race where my next qualifying bet was identified.

FAQ

Is this time consuming?

Not really. I placed each lay bet on my iPhone. This took a few minutes. Once you get a hang of the criteria, you can identify a bet within seconds. When your bet is settled, move onto the next race.

Prices are very high……?

Yup - this is not for everybody. However, I am a big fan of laying huge prices, as these horses rarely win. With the criteria in place, I feel it is very robust to mitigate the remote chance of an extreme outsider winning.

If you are laying extremely high prices (e.g. 50.0 + or even 100.0 +), it is very unlikely that you will actually lose. I know people who lay horses in the 200, 300 or even 1000 price region. The rationale is that these horses will simply not win, and the small profit earned from each lay is like a slow drip of profit.

No horse has ever won with a 1000 starting price (although a horse did win with a 1000 in-play price in recent years due to a commentator error incorrectly noting that the jockey had fallen) . In 1990, Equinoctial won at Kelso (UK) at 250/1.

Why Betdaq?

The EUR 0.50 minimum bet size catered for my low bank of EUR 100.

Did you use level laying stakes?

Yes, more or less. I kept my exposure at around EUR 100 at all times, withdrawing profits regularly.

Are betting exchanges suitable for Nosebleed prices. Does the market overprice these horses, leading to awful laying value?

I really don’t know. I would assume a betting exchange gives better value on the backing side for any horse priced this high in some situations. I was not seeking long term value, but rather risk minimisation, by using my set criteria.

Is laying extreme outsiders a popular system/strategy?

No, it is in the minority. Your goal is small, consistent and regular gains. With such a low win rate for these horses at these monster prices, there is great potential in the Nosebleed range. This is not for everybody, but if you lay a number of horses each at these huge prices, you are slowly building up a profit and this profit can be used for more aggressive laying strategies with far far lower prices.