TIEBREAK TRADING
Tiebreaks are a
very volatile period for in-play trading. For those who are unaware, the first
to 7 points wins, although the player must win by 2 clear points. The first
player to serve does so for one point, and then the serve rotates every two
points. Therefore, in roughly 10-15 points, the winner of the set is decided.
Consequently there are heavy swings when a player wins a point, particularly
when a player wins a point on the opponent’s serve.
If a player
starts the match at 1.25, they might be about 1.35 at time of a tiebreak in the
first set. If they win the tiebreak, their price will probably be under 1.10,
but if they were to lose it, it would be likely to be around 2.00. Therefore,
in a short space of time, a huge odds swing is guaranteed one way or the other.
I personally trade
tiebreaks only when I have a live video stream and I also trade these with
significantly reduced stakes due to the volatility.
There is, to some
extent, a degree of luck and randomness in tiebreaks. Although there’s definitely
an element of skill and mental strength too – some players with consistently
good tiebreak records like John Isner prove that. Recently, Robin Haase
incredibly lost 17 tiebreaks in a row, so clearly he was not strong in the key
points.
Big servers tend to
have a little bit more success in tiebreaks, although it’s not a given that is
the case. Many pundits often are highly unsurprised when the likes of Ivo
Karlovic
‘unsurprisingly’
wins the tiebreak but actually his career tiebreak record at the time of
writing is a non-spectacular 199-185 (52% winrate). Probably the main reason
why a big server is generally slightly more successful in tiebreaks is because
they have more practice – due to their serving quality and generally mediocre return
game they have a higher chance of getting to tiebreaks than the average player.
What I look to do
is in tiebreaks to is to try and oppose players with a low projected hold in
tiebreaks. Because the price will move hugely against the player that loses a
service point, we can make a lot of ticks if a player with a low projected hold
loses a service point in a tiebreak.
If we look at some stats, you can start
to get an idea of the maths behind this.
In the ATP, across
all surfaces, the current mean for service points won is 63.1%, but the average
service hold is higher at 78.2%. So if we consider laying players on serve in
tiebreaks with a projected hold of under 64% (very bad server category) then their
average points won on serve should be around the 51-55% mark.
Let’s assume that a player has a 64%
projected hold and we are generous and assign them
55% success for
winning points on their serve.
The likelihood of
that player winning both points on their serve is a mere 30.25% (55%*55%). For
the receiver to win both points the likelihood is slightly lower, at 20.25%
(45%*45%). Therefore, the likelihood for both players to win a point each on a
low projected hold players mini service game is 49.50% ((55%*45%)+(45%*55%)).
That too would also guarantee us a profit after the mini service game as we
gain more ticks for the receiver winning one point than we would lose for the
server winning one point.
So mathematically
in this situation we have a 69.75% of making profit. Unfortunately the 30.25%
chance of the receiver losing both points would represent a significant loss,
although that would be dwarfed by the potential profit should the 20.25% chance
of the receiver winning both points happen. There’s very little you can do
about avoiding the chance of the server winning both points – it happens. But
that’s the thing with trading tiebreaks – if you want to trade them you need to
accept the fact that there is a chance of losing a high percentage of your
stake.
It’s also vital to realise that tiebreaks are very quick. New
regulations mean that the server has 25 seconds (20 seconds in a Grand Slam)
from the end of the previous point to start the next point. You will need to be
very quick to ensure your trades get matches. This is a very pressurised time
in tennis trading.
However, there is
one very low risk method of trading tiebreaks. If a player is 6-2 or 6-3 up in
a tiebreak, the market generally assumes that the tiebreak is as good as over.
If you lay a player leading by this score (or of course back the player losing
by that score), the market barely moves when the tiebreak is won (especially
from 6-2). In fact, if you often wait for a minute or so after the set for the
market to correct itself then you sometimes even find you can trade out with a
tick or two profit!
If the player you have laid loses the next point or two, and the score
gets to perhaps 6-4, then you can exit with decent profit (perhaps at that
point you can clear your liability and keep the profit riding on the player 6-4
down). Players do lose tiebreaks from 6-2 and 6-3 up, so for such low risk this
is a great trade.
Another way
of trading it is to lay at the same entry point (6-2 or 6-3) and keep the trade
in place until the end of the tiebreak. That way you get the gigantic tick gain
if your player stages an unlikely comeback and wins the tiebreak, but even if
the player you backed loses the tiebreak by a score like 7-5 or 8-6 you should
make some profit as the price at that point will be higher than your lay price
as the tiebreak was won ‘less dominantly’ than when you laid the leader.
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