LAYING BAD SERVERS
One type of trade
that I like is opposing the very bad servers. My projected hold model enables
me to identify these easily. A player that has a projected hold of below 64%
(ATP) or below 50% (WTA) is a prime candidate for this trade and can be laid on
pretty much all their service games.
As I mentioned
previously, the market is still fairly unaware of this and still tends to be
far too orientated to starting price which is then deviated by the current
score.
Looking at
the WTA stats for recent matches, I think the lowest projected hold I’ve ever
seen was Rus against Errani in the first round of the French Open in 2013. It
was 27% for Rus.
She’d only
held around 35% of her service games in the last three months and Errani’s
return game is one of the best on the WTA tour. Considering Serena Williams
holds around 85% of the time on clay it shows the huge difference between the
top and the bottom of the tour.
Anyone with
any experience of tennis trading will know that even on the WTA tour, the
market will shorten by less ticks when the serve is held than it will rise when
serve is broken.
As I mentioned
previously, it’s very difficult to say exactly what the risk/reward ratio is in
this situation as it varies so much based on the scoreline but my research
shows that the 61-62% for service holds on the WTA is generally about right –
so for example if the market shortens a player 15-16 ticks for a hold then it
will lengthen a player 25 ticks for a break. It’s highly situational though.
I would generally
apply my projected hold analysis in the following way when laying the server:-
ATP:-
64-74% Projected
Hold – lay the player when serving a break up and exit the trade at the end of
the set if the opponent does not break back.
Under 64%
Projected Hold – lay the player when serving when the match is on serve and
when they are leading. If you lay the player when the match is on serve you
need to exit the trade at the end of the service game regardless of whether the
market moved in your favour with a break, or against you with a hold. When they
are leading you can leave the trade until the end of the set.
WTA:-
50-60% Projected
Hold – lay the player when serving a break up and exit the trade at the end of
the set if the opponent does not break back.
Under 50%
Projected Hold – lay the player when serving when the match is on serve and
when they are leading. If you lay the player when the match is on serve you
need to exit the trade at the end of the service game regardless of whether the
market moved in your favour with a break, or against you with a hold. When they
are leading you can leave the trade until the end of the set.
However, I would
take into account the current prices before executing these trades. Generally I
will only trade matches in this way where the favourite is priced at 1.40 or
higher. Furthermore, I will generally only oppose the bad server if my
projected hold model does not consider the player value.
I will give two examples from the women’s
French Open second round matches on 30th
May, 2013:-
Example 1: Kristina Mladenovic v Sam
Stosur
Mladenovic had a
projected hold of 52.1% and Stosur had a projected hold of 71.1%. My model and
other adjustments perceived that the starting price of 1.25 on Stosur was
pretty much spot-on. As Mladenovic has a projected hold of 52.1%, we should be
getting some advantage if we laid her when a break up (that never actually
happened, but it doesn’t detract from the example) because it’s significantly
below the WTA average for service holds. Of course, we must slightly temper
that approach with realising that market support on Stosur, as she started as a
heavy favourite, will probably mean her price is artificially low.
Example 2: Alize Cornet v Silvia
Soler-Espinosa.
This match was a
completely different proposition. Soler-Espinosa in this match and Mladenovic
in the first example had a very similar projected hold – Soler-Espinosa’s was
51.8%. Cornet’s was 59.0%. However my model and other adjustments considered
Soler-Espinosa value based on her pre-match starting price (3.05) which I felt
should be around 2.60. Therefore I would be far less willing to oppose
Soler-Espinosa, even though she has a low projected hold, in the knowledge that
my model indicated that her starting price was too high. If my model was
correct, and it’s the lifeblood of my trading, then my value on laying her with
a low projected hold would be eroded by the incorrect starting price.
There are a lot of
perceptions that women players are terrible at holding serve. I’m as guilty as
anybody in using the term ‘WTA match’ to describe a match with many breaks.
There are some terrible servers and knowledge of these can be highly
advantageous. However there are some very good servers who hold serve
consistently over 70%, that you would not want to oppose unless they are facing
a player who breaks with extreme regularity (over 50% of the time) compared to
the averages.
On the flip side, I
think that a lot of people appear to think it’s a given that a man holds serve.
Believe it or not, there are some men (and not necessarily the lower level
players either) that hold around 70% or less. Gilles Simon is currently ranked
18th in the world (and
has been as high as 6th) and in 14 clay matches in 2013 has held serve just 70.5% of the time
– which is
over 5% below the ATP average. He does break 35% of the time in those matches
however – perhaps indicating why he is one of my favourite players to trade in
this manner…
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