BACKING THE FAVOURITE WHEN LOSING
A favourite tactic
of novice tennis traders is to lay the underdog when leading, or back the
favourite when losing. Effectively they are the same thing. You see a lot of
people advocating this trade on Twitter – I’ve noticed it’s a particular
favourite of cricket traders making their way over to the tennis markets.
They think – well the favourite was a favourite pre-match because the
market thought they were the better player before the match started and surely
they’ll come through in the end. I hate to ruin that perception but to be
brutally honest, it’s a load of rubbish. Favourites do lose, and they lose more
than the odd occasion. Furthermore, as we will see later on in the
Handbook in the ‘At
the end of the first set’ chapter, my statistics prove that the market support
for this entry point means that often you are backing the favourite at an
artificially low price, sometimes up to 20 ticks below the true market value.
I’m not saying this
isn’t ever a viable entry point, but you need to consider a few things before
making this entry.
1- Does the
favourite have a good record of coming back either from break deficits or from
set deficits?
2- Does the
underdog have a history of choking in pressure situations such as when on the
verge of a big win or when serving for the match?
3- What is the
biggest win that the underdog has achieved in their career or in the last year?
If the favourite is of a significantly higher level than that, perhaps this
could still be a viable trade.
4- Does the favourite have a good record
of beating much lower ranked players?
5- Is the underdog
a bad server or does the favourite have a strong return game? If either (or
preferably both of these) are applicable then we may be able to enter at this
point. We may not get (or need to get) the result of the favourite winning the
match but if the favourite comes back and gets a break back, we can still exit
the trade profitably.
6- Does the favourite have a high level of motivation to win this
match? Player motivation tends to be highest in Grand Slams and Masters (1000)
events (the women’s equivalent of these is WTA Premier events) as there is more
money and ranking points on offer.
Therefore if a
favourite is losing to an underdog in a low-profile 250/WTA International event
we need to be very wary of their motivation. This can especially be the case in
the more ‘exotic’ venues, where a few days on the beach or by the pool can be
considered much more of a priority by some top players.
Bearing in
mind a heavy pre-match favourite may still be trading odds-on even after losing
the first set, backing them has a big risk attached to it because their price
still can rise much more than it can fall. I would strongly recommend at least
a few of the above conditions are met before you make this trade.
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