Introduction
*** NOTE, the excel calculator is not added as i don't know how to add downloadable links on my blog. i'm still learning. ANYONE WHO KNOWS HOW please leave a guidance comment THANKs. Though you can still use lay calculators on the web
Before progressing to staking any money, it is strongly recommended that the whole of these instructions are read and understood. It is then seriously suggested that a period of testing should take place whereby you ‘dry run’ your staking to record what you would have won/lost on each race without any risk. Only once you
are confident with the systems should you play for real. However, remember that you should always stake sensibly as loss can occur and you don’t want it to undo lots of hard work!
are confident with the systems should you play for real. However, remember that you should always stake sensibly as loss can occur and you don’t want it to undo lots of hard work!
Finally, really good luck, lets hope you too are able to GAIN THE EDGE!!
You will need:
- An account with Betfair
- The place market open for a coming horse race
Betfair doesn’t offer each-way betting, only a place (or win) market. In the place market you will win/lose the same amount no matter where the horse finishes if it finishes in the allotted place positions. It is this facility (the place market) that this system is centred on.
First, the way that I use this system is to keep looking for opportunities in the place market, when I see one I lay my selections. The reason being that my liability will be very low due to the much reduced odds, and my profit being VERY high if I am correct and the selections finish outside of the places.
The number of places paid by Betfair on a race will vary depending on the number of runners and the type of race that is being run. It is vital that you check how many are being paid as this will determine whether an opportunity has arisen. The way Betfair work out how many places are paid is as follows:
Number of Runners
|
Places Paid
|
5 -7
|
1st and 2nd
|
8-15
|
1st, 2nd and 3rd
|
16+ (non-handicap)
|
1st, 2nd and 3rd
|
16+ (handicap)
|
1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th
|
Laying 1 selection not to place
I will generally lay only one selection not to finish in the place market when it is the very short-priced favourite. The reason behind this approach is that there is every chance that the selection will win, and therefore I don’t want to pay out by laying the win. Alternatively, at such a short price I don’t want to back it to win either, as this is simply not value.
To increase your chances: select a race that has 7 runners as this will still only be paying for 1st and 2nd in the place market, but the there are the greatest number of runners in the race, so giving you the greatest chance of the favourite coming outside the first 3.
Laying the selection not to place offers two opportunities.
- The price will be so small (often below 1.1) that even if it does win, you will be paying out much less than you would have done had you laid the win market.
- If we assume that the horse is such a short price because it is easily the best:
- If it runs well it will win
BUT
- If it has a bad day (surprisingly often the case) it has every chance of finishing outside the places completely. This is where I collect.
- Open the ‘Staking Calculator for Laying’ tool provided and enter the decimal odds on Betfair for the selection in the place market and also the liability you are prepared to pay out if the selection was to place. After pressing the return key, the tool will automatically tell you how much to enter in the lay box on the Betfair site for that liability.
- Enter this amount into Betfair and sit back with the good prospect that you will be collecting a HUGE sum of money if the horse has a bad day.
The reason why this works is that horses can have bad days, and often will. This can be a lay off from racing so the horse is not race-fit, over racing so the horse is tired, the track doesn’t suit etc. The exact reasons why don’t matter to me, but what does matter is that it only needs one of these factors to be present and the horse may under perform, leaving me to collect!
This has worked a number of times, and has made my day of punting. For example I often find horses to lay at 1.1 in the place market. A liability of only £10 will return a nice £100 profit if the horse runs badly!
Laying 2 selections in the place market
I will lay two selections in the place market if there are only 2 places paid, and two selections under 2.0 odds. The reasoning behind this approach is that even if one selection does finish in the first two, as long as the other doesn’t you will be able to cover that liability with what you win on the losing horse and still make a profit. In order to be paying out on both, it requires both horses to come first AND second (in other words a forecast) this does not happen very often, and in fact if both horses finish outside the first two then you collect on both.
To increase your chances: select a race that has 7 runners as this will still only be paying for 1st and 2nd in the place market, but the there are the greatest number of runners in the race, so giving you the greatest chance of at least one horse beating one of the two market leaders. If this happens then you will get paid.
- Enter the odds of selection 1 into the lay calculator provided. Then enter your liability in the appropriate box.
- Enter the stake into Betfair.
- Repeat for selection 2.
The reason why this works is that like the concept above, horses can have bad days, and often will. With two selections involved and me only needing one to have that bad day to make a profit, this is a key opportunity that I make the most of. Also if you have picked a race with 7 runners, there is a hig chance that one of the other 5 will have a good day and beat one of the first two market leaders.
The above points are summarised in the following ‘Summary Page’. Print this out so you can easily identify what you are looking for and the steps you need to undertake to achieve this. The only other thing you need is the ‘Staking Calculator for Laying’ tool provided as this will enable you to automatically and quickly calculate your staking so that you don’t miss the opportunity and before the prices change again.
Laying 1 selection not to place
Look for:
- One selection not to finish in the place market when it is the very short-priced favourite in the win market and less than 1.1 in place market.
- There are 7 runners in the race
- If selection finishes outside of place spots = you win BIG
Method:
- Open place market for the race in Betfair
- Open the ‘Staking Calculator for Laying’
- Enter the decimal odds
- Enter liability
- Press return key
- Enter lay stake into Betfair place market
Laying 2 selections in the place market
Look for:
- Only 2 places paid in place market
- 2 selections less than 2.0 odds in place market
- There are 7 runners in the race
- If one doesn’t finish in first 2 = you win
Method:
- Open place market for the race in Betfair
- Enter the odds of selection 1 into the lay calculator provided. Then enter your liability in the appropriate box.
- Enter the lay stake into Betfair place market
- Repeat for selection 2.
I truly enjoy looking through on this website , it holds fantastic blog posts.
ReplyDeleteThank you, keep checking, I will be adding new more Systems in two weeks time
DeleteThis site amazing :) hats off to you m8. Can I ask what have you found the most effective system? One you mainly use
ReplyDeleteHey you can upload to google docs then share on here
ReplyDelete