This is a very simple way to greatly enhance prices for a
PLACE on horses in certain races by scalping bookmakers' prices under certain
conditions where the bookmaker has no choice but to offer way above the true
odds for part of an eachway bet...the place part of the bet....and to do this
you need only place 2 bets.
You will need to have a bookmakers' account to place one
side of this bet and the other is done on the exchanges.
Personally, when I do these bets I am looking to get at
least 50% above the Betfair place prices on offer. There are usually 2 or 3
good opportunities to do this bet every day and if you keep doing these bets
you cannot fail to make money because we are getting way above the true odds
for the event.
The perfect races to be able to do this bet are a minimum
of 8 runners...so we get to 3 places with the bookmaker....and non-handicaps,
and the market needs to be heavily weighted towards the front end on 2 or 3
horses with ideally an odds-on favourite.
So a market that looks something like this in the
bookmakers' betting show......4/7; 3/1; 6/1; 14/1; 16/1; 18/1; 25/1; 50/1
There's an odds-on favourite with the next two in the
betting fairly short prices then a big gap from the 3rd favourite to the 4th in
the betting. The odds-on favourite obviously should win the race and the next
two in the betting look like they should be good things for a place.
We are not interested in the favourite, but the next 2
possibly for a place, especially the 3/1 shot as it it more likely to place than
the 6/1.
The Betfair place market would look something like this
for these prices.....1.12; 1.34; 1.7;...........
If like me you're going for at least 50% on the place
price, look at the Betfair place prices and we're looking at the horse that is 3/1....the
place is 1.34 (0.34/1)...if you divide it by 2, so 0.17 then add that to the
0.34 it gives 0.51 as being 50% over the odds. The bookmaker in his rules has
no choice but to give 1/5th of the show odds for the place part of his each-way
bet so he is offering us 1/5th of 3/1 for the place = 0.6/1 (2.6) which is
above 0.51 so we can get more than 50% greater odds on this one.
So we place an eachway bet with the bookmaker, say 50
eachway @ 3/1. As soon as that is done we go across to Betfair and immediately
LAY the win to win 50 on the win market. Say in this example to lay the horse
that is 3/1 we had to lay at 4.3 (3.3/1).
So with the bookmaker if the horse won the race we would
get back 50x3 + 50x0.6 = +180and if it placed we would lose 20 so -20.....and
if unplaced we lose -100.
With our LAY bet on Betfair, if the horse won the race we
would lose 50x3.3 = -165 and if it lost the race we would win 50 less Betfair
commission (say 5%) = +47.50
Putting the two bets together:-
If horse wins the race.....from Bookie +180 less from
Betfair -165 = +15
If the horse finishes 2nd or 3rd.....from Bookie -20 plus
from betfair +47.50 = +27.50
If the horse is unplaced.....from Bookie -100 and from
Betfair +47.50 = -52.50
So we have risked a total of 100 with the bookie and
50x3.3 = 165 on Betfair = a total of 265 but the MOST we can possibly lose is
52.50.
So we have a risk of 52.50 to win 27.50 if the horse
places 2nd or 3rd which is 0.52/1 (1.52) when the Betfair price is 0.34. We
have more than 50% over the odds. Also if the horse did actually win the race
we still make a profit in this example of +15. You may decide to adjust stakes
slightly so that you win the same amount if the horse wins or finishes 2nd or
3rd but really it is better longterm to aim for 2nd and 3rd because a higher
percentage of these bets are going to place than win the races.
In the above example, you could have probably done the
same bet with the 3rd in the betting too as it was 1.7 for a place on betfair,
50% over the odds would make it 2.05 and the bookmaker is giving 1/5th of 6/1,
so 2.2 (1.2/1). However when there are two that qualify in the same race I
would always side with the shorter price one as it is far more likely to place
than the bigger priced one.
So that is the way to scalp bookmakers' place price...of
course the win prices can be scalped too, but that's another story ...and apart
from restricting the size of your bets there is nothing they can do about it.
Fortunately there are many bookmakers for us to utilize and the majority of
bets placed with them will be losing money because the horses will be finishing
2nd or 3rd and we'll be picking up the lay money from Betfair. The only
drawback is when one or two of these horses actually win and your bookmaker
account dramatically increases. Win too much off them and they soon restrict
your bets or worse still close the account so ideally after a win or two and
your account has shot up it's best if you try to transfer some money across to
Betfair by finding something to bet on with the bookmaker that should
lose!...that you can lay on Betfair at the same or near the same price. The
draw on a football match is usually good to do this as it's a fairly short
price but it can go wrong and you end up with an even bigger balance on your
bookmaker account. A friend of mine a few months ago managed to back 3 draws in
a row with the bookmaker that all won and had to give up trying to transfer the
money because the bookie shut his account as he'd won too much.
This is an extremely powerful and profitable betting
technique to have in your armoury.
Here's a few examples my bets in the past few days:-
TIDAL BAY
Jan 27 1.00 Cheltenham 11 runners Novice Hurdle 3 places
1/5th the place with bookmakers
Starting Prices
Ev Wichita Lineman
11/4 Tidal Bay
7/1 Zilcash
11/1
16/1bar
These are the SPs. Prices near the start were similar
with bookmakers. You can see there's a gap of more than 4 points between the
2nd and 3rd fav and a further gap of 4 points from 3rd to 4th in the betting.
The prices are telling us TIDAL BAY has a VERY good chance of finishing at
least in the places.
On the Betfair place market TIDAL BAY was trading around
1.36 (0.36/1). On the win market it could be laid at 3.8 (2.8/1). I bet as
follows:-
43 eachway @ 11/4 with bookmaker and laid 50 @ 3.8
(2.8/1) on the Betfair win market
This gave me the following outcomes....
If TB won.........43 x 11/4 + 43 x 0.55 for the place
with bookmaker = +141.90 less 50 x 2.8 pay out on Betfair = -140
So if TB won......+1.90
If TB placed......-43 win part of eachway bet, +23.65
place part = -19.35 with bookie, +50 from Betfair laying the win, less 5%
commission = +47.50
So if TB placed.....+28.15
If TB unplaced.....-100 with bookie, +47.50 from Betafir
So if TB unplaced.....-52.50
So after placing the 2 bets my risk was 52.50 and stood
to win 28.15 if it finished 2nd or 3rd = average price of 1.535 (0.535/1). So I
had a place bet at 1.53 on Tidal Bay when it was only available at 1.36 on
Betfair, so just about 50% greater odds.
RESULT:-
TIDAL BAY finished 2nd 11/4...........+28.15 
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