GOLDEN GOALS

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GOLDEN GOALS

Win whoever wins

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Did you know that only around 10% of all

football matches end in a 0-0 draw? Think about that for a minute....

What if there was a reliable way to profit from the other

90%... No matter who wins... No matter if it’s a draw.... No matter if there’s 1 goal or 10..... That would be a whole lot of winning, right? RIGHT!

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There IS a way. And in this e-book I’m going to show you the most

reliable way that I’ve found to profit from a massive amount of football

matches.

Allowing you to rake in tax-free cash match after match, season after

season and year after year.

But firstly I’ll tell you what this system is not.

Many similar systems you may have seen revolve around either

laying the 0-0 scoreline or backing the over 0.5 markets.

Let’s look at these in turn.

Laying 0-0 in a match where goals are expected can present you with odds in the high teens. For example, that can leave you with a potential outlay of £170 to win just £10 if you were to lay at odds of 18.0.

You might think it’s a ‘sure thing’ but I’m sure you know there really is no such thing and one day even the most unlikely match WILL end 0-0 and rapidly clear you of weeks worth of profit.

The same goes for backing over 0.5 goals.

In matches where goals are really expected to happen you can find this

bet offered for no more than around 1.04.

That leaves you having to place a bet of £250 to win just a

tenner!

I don’t think so!

With this system there are NO crazy bets or Massive liabilities

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What is trading?

Until around 2000 your only option when you wanted to place a bet was to do so with a traditional bookmaker where you would place a bet on the outcome of an event at odds set by the bookie.

The advent of betting exchanges changed all that forever when they

introduced the concept of giving everybody the chance to play bookie

by matching punters who wanted to both place and accept bets.

When combined with in-play betting this brings a wealth of

opportunities to both place (back) and accept (lay) bets on the outcome

of an event to guarantee a profit before the event has even ended.

The biggest and most popular exchange by far is ‘Betfair’ who

themselves have some excellent tutorials and education on their website to explain fully how the exchange works, but briefly the idea is to accept a bet (lay) - which in the illustration above are the odds on the right in pink- and to also back the same outcome at higher odds - which are the odds in blue on the left.

This isn’t possible to do this on the same exchange at the same time as lay odds will always be higher than back odds but as an event progresses the odds change to give you the opportunity to do so.

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For example, If Arsenal are playing Liverpool and I felt sure that the match would not end in a draw I could ‘lay’ the draw at odds of 3.6. At the start of the match the odds to back the draw are 3.55 which is lower than the lay odds so I would have to pay out more than I won at the end of the match, meaning I would therefore make a loss at this time.

If however I wait till a goal is scored then a draw would appear less likely so the odds to back the draw would rise to, let’s say, 8.0. I would then back the draw to cover both outcomes and guarantee a profit no matter how the match ends.

For Example:

If I place a lay bet of £10.00 on the draw at 3.6 then I am saying that I think that the match will NOT end in a draw. If it does then I have to pay out at those odds as a bookmaker would, which means I have a liability of £26.00 which I would pay to someone who had placed an opposing bet on a draw occurring.

Now if I was to also back the draw for £5.00 at odds of 8.0 once the goal was scored then I have secured a profit no matter what else happens, as to cover my liability of £26.00 I would win £35.00. And if the match didn’t draw as I initially thought then I would lose my back bet of £5.00 but win my lay amount of £10.00 .

This is just a brief illustration of how trading works and for those

totally new it will all become clearer as you progress.

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Match Selection

Though we already know that only around 10% of football matches end in a 0-0 draw we want to bring the chance of a 0-0 down even further and, obviously, we do that by finding matches where a few goals are expected.

The most easiest and most accurate way to do that without spending hours and hours studying both teams recent form, the line-up for the match, their place in the table etc etc... Is to look at just two odds on the Betfair markets.

1. We want matches in which there is a strong favourite with odds below

2.0.

2. We want matches where OVER 2.5 goals also has odds below 2.0 and

is favoured compared to UNDER 2.5 goals.

If we look at results from four of the big leagues for the 2012/2013 sea-

son we’ll see just how effective that can be:

SPANISH PRIMERIA

149 of 380 matches met the criteria.

Only 3 of those ended 0-0 = 2.01%

ITALIAN SERIE A

100 of 380 met the criteria.

Only 3 of those ended 0-0 = 3%

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

144 of 306 matches met the criteria.

Only 7 of those ended 0-0 = 4.86%

ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP

189 of 380 matches met criteria.

Only 13 of those ended 0-0 = 6.88%

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THE STRATEGY

Our strategy revolves around placing an initial lay bet on the UNDER 1.5 goals market, so to reduce any potential liabilities we concentrate on matches that we selected that also have under 1.5 goal lay odds of no more than 4.9 pre-match.

To lessen liabilities even further we wait until the match has started and aim to enter the market by laying at no more than 3.8. In matches that started at around 4.9 or less this should happen in around 10-15 minutes without a goal. Should there be an early goal then it’s a ‘no bet’ and move on to the next, there’s plenty more and there’s no need to expose yourself to unnecessary liabilities.

I would advise a total of 4 units from a 100 unit bank per match.

AT THIS TIME WE SPLIT OUR 4 UNITS IN HALF AND ONLY PLACE

2 AT THIS TIME

This is because we trade out of the game and secure our profit by back-

ing the correct score market once a goal is scored.

A goal in the first half can see the odds of it remaining 1-0 or 0-1 increase to anything around 10.0 or more, sometimes up to the mid to high teens in matches which are expected to be particularly high scoring.

If we go back to the big leagues last season:

PRIMERIA

Of 149 matches that met criteria, 146 saw goals.

131 saw a goal in the first half = 89.73%

SERIE A

Of 100 that met criteria, 97 saw goals.

62 saw a goal in the first half = 69.07%

BUNDESLIGA

144 met criteria, 137 saw goals.

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115 saw a goal in the first half = 83.94%

PREMIERSHIP

189 met criteria, 176 saw goals.

136 saw a goal in the first half = 77.27%

As you can see in the vast majority of matches you will be trading out at

high odds and securing a good profit very early in the match.

However, obviously, as the match progresses should it remain 0-0 into the second half then then the odds of it remaining 1-0 in the correct score market will lessen in comparison to after an early goal. Though even in the 75th - 80th minute a goal can still increase the 1-0 odds to well in excess of 5.0

To combat this we re-enter a goal-less match by placing another lay bet, again on the under 1.5 market, with the remaining 2 units of our stake

WHEN THE ODDS OF UNDER 1.5 LAY HAVE DROPPED TO 1.5.

This allows us to minimize any potential losses drastically allowing us

to stay in the match far longer than other similar strategies.

By splitting our stake in this way we only need 1-0 odds of around 2.7 to ensure that we do not lose on that match, and odds like this can be seen even from very, very late goals.

EXIT POINT

On the very rare occasion that all is looking hopeless you exit the match by placing a BACK bet to cover both lay bets on the under 1.5 market when odds of 1.1 are reached.

Reaching the exit point will mean a loss for that match of less than 6

units.

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Examples

We find a premiership match, Man U v Stoke

Man U are clear favorite with odds of 1.35 compared to Stoke at 12.0.

Over 2.5 goals is favoured with odds of 1.84 compared to 2.16 for under.

Pre-match lay odds for Under 1.5 goals are 4.8.

All criteria are met so we monitor this match from kick off.

12 minutes into the match its still goal-less and odds of laying under 1.5

have dropped to 3.8.

We enter our stake based on a starting bank of £500 and we use a total

stake of 4 units per match which is £20.

WE DIVIDE OUR 4 UNITS IN HALF AT THIS TIME AND PLACE A

LAY OF ONLY 2 UNITS AT 3.8

Man U get one in at the 20 minute mark!

More goals than this are expected so the odds of it remaining 1-0 in the

correct score market rocket to 14.0 once the market returns.

We immediately back 1-0 at 14.0 with £2.71 (a back/lay calculator is

needed for this. See final page for recommended).

This locks in a profit from our £10 initial stake of £6.92 minus

commission.

Or alternatively, it remains 0-0 into half time and at the 50 minute mark

under 1.5 lay odds have dropped to 1.5.

We place another lay bet with our remaining 2 units of £10 at these odds

to give us 2 lay bets at different odds on under 1.5 goals.

At 60 minutes Stoke manage a lucky goal!

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An equalizer from Man U would seem likely with 30 minutes still to

play so once the market returns you can back 0-1 for odds of 7.4.

Backing the 0-1 at these odds will see a guaranteed profit of £4.62 from our lay at 3.8 and a profit of £7.57 from our lay at 1.5 to give us a total profit from our £20 total stake of £12.19 after commission.

Or alternatively both teams defenses are working well at at the 80th

minute the odds of backing under 1.5 goals have dropped to 1.1.

We back at these odds to minimize any further losses to cover both lay

bets.

This will give us a loss of £3.64 on the 1.5 lay and a loss of £24.55 on the 3.8 lay to leave us with a total loss of £28.19 which equates to under 6 units.

Basically what we’re doing with this strategy is finding a way to ,in

effect, lay the 0-0 draw for odds of below 7, whilst still being able to

profit early in the match.

In matches where goals are a certainty that is something that you would

otherwise find totally impossible to do.

For example the Man U v Stoke match that I have used for example

above has pre-match 0-0 lay odds of 16.5!

AS previously said there IS NO such thing as a sure bet but betting against 0-0 in the right match surely is as close as you can get. Of the

combined big leagues in 2012/13 that we have used as examples in this

strategy only 5% of those ended in a 0-0 draw.

By staking in the correct way to maximize profits and minimize losses

from the other 95% you WILL win long term.