TRUE VALUE FOOTBALL BETTING SYSTEM

I know that nowadays you can bet on practically anything to do with the game – from the number of corners, free kicks, penalties, redcards etc, to what kiss-and-tell wannabe the star player bedded the night before the match! Here we stick to trying to forecast the result of the game.

The idea of value crops up a lot in betting on horses and perplexes many punters. A horse could be 10-1 on and be good value or 10-1 against and be bad value. How? Because the 10-1 on shot should really be 20-1 on and the 10-1 against runner should be 12-1. We know that the bookmaker sets the real odds but the value odds are purely subjective, the idea of each individual punter based on his assessment of all the factors. My idea for value in fixed odds betting on football will be absolutely objective, the same for every punter. But before we start such betting we’ll have to be patient, for a few weeks at least. As with betting on horses, or anything else for that matter, we need form to work on. I’m suggesting that we wait until each team we are betting on has played at least 6 games at home and 6 games away. That would seem to provide a sound platform on which to base our form study.

Later on in the season when many more games have been played, I would still suggest that we use just the 6 most recent both at home and away. We know that a team’s performance can improve or dip at different stages of the season, but by using the 6 most recent games we are using the most reliable form. And another thing. Most of the specialized sporting papers that give football information usually present it in that way – very convenient for us.

Now, let’s look at an example of how we do it.

Suppose that in a few weeks, after the relevant number of games have been played, Man. Utd are playing Reading. (I know that in the opening game of the season the Champions at home were shocked by Reading drawing with them; and Man. U. were 1-5 to win). Some weeks on we find this information. Man. Utd’s last 6 home games are given thus. D W W D W L. Clearly they’ve won 3 games, drawn 2 and lost their most recent. Reading’s record away is D L L W L L. They’ve won 1 game away, drawn 1 and lost 4. First of all we want to find out what are the chances of Man. U. winning. We add together the number of games they’ve won at home to the number that Reading have lost away. That is 3 + 4. We divide by the total number of games played, 12, and multiply by 100 to give a percentage figure. So it is 7 divided by 12 multiplied by 100. The result is 58.3%. We now do the same for Reading to win away. This time we add together the games won by Reading away to the games lost by Man. U. at home. The figures are 1 + 1. Again divide by 12 and multiply by 100 for the percentage. 2 divided by 12 times 100 = 16.7%. To find out the percentage chance of the draw we add together the figures for the home and away and subtract from 100. That is (58.3 + 16.7) = 75%. Subtract from 100 and we have a 25% chance of a draw.

Do these calculations for all the matches, or as many as you are interested in. But what do these figures tell us, and what use can we make of them? Well, overall for many years it’s been recorded that around 50% of all matches result in home wins and the remaining 50% are fairly equally divided between away wins and draws. So, any home team with a percentage figure of over 50 has a better than average chance of being a home win, and any away or draw percentage over 25 also has a better than average chance of being successful. Taking the Man. Utd v Reading game we can see that at 58.3% the home team has a reasonable chance of success. But it’s not big enough for me to make it a banker bet. For a home win I’d like a figure of over 60%, the higher the better. For an away I’d look for 40% and over, and for a draw at least 37%.

That then is how I’d make my selections, but for whether it’s a value bet or not you’ll have to consult the following chart.

% Odds Price Odds %

Chance On Against Chance

50 Evens 50

52.38 11-10 47.62

54.55 6-5 45.45

55.56 5-4 44.44

57.89 11-8 42.11

60.00 6-4 40.00

61.90 13-8 38.10

63.64 7-4 36.36

65.22 15-8 34.78

66.67 2-1 33.33

68.00 85-40 32.00

69.23 9-4 30.77

71.43 5-2 28.57

73.33 11-4 26.67

75.00 3-1 25.00

76.92 10-3 23.08

77.78 7-2 22.22

80.00 4-1 20.00

81.82 9-2 18.18

83.33 5-1 16.67

84.62 11-2 15.38

85.71 6-1 14.29

86.67 13-2 13.33

87.50 7-1 12.50

88.24 15-2 11.76

88.89 8-1 11.11

89.47 17-2 10.53

90.00 9-1 10.00

Since we are very unlikely to be betting at odds longer than 9-1 against or shorter than 9-1 on we’ll leave the chart at that point. But getting back to Man. Utd. Their percentage of 58.3 shows odds on the chart of between 8-11 and 4-6. We now have to take into account the bookmaker’s edge of around 12% on the three possible results of a football match, or 4% on each of them. For Man. U we’ll add on 4% to make it 62.3% and look at the chart for the value odds there. That turns out to be near enough 8-13. That’s what it should be, but I’d be prepared to wager a few pence that the price on offer would be nearer 4-11 or 1-3. Why? Because of the strong following for Man. U. A less fashionable club with the same figures could well be priced at 8-13, the true value price. At 1-3, therefore, Man. U would definitely not be worth a bet.

To recap then. Work out the percentages for homes, aways and draws. Look out for the higher percentages to back and then check the chart, adding on 4% to find the true value price. If the price is right, that is, the price on offer is the same or better than the value odds on the chart, then back it. Final point. It’s worth going to an odds comparison site to find the different odds on offer from different bookmakers. That way you have a better chance of finding your true value price.